RadarBundesliga · Matchday 6
2026-27 · 16 Oct 2026 – 18 Oct 2026 ← matchday 5 matchday 7 →
Round on radar: all leagues, before and after
Results 9 played
Every match of the round with the final score. Matches not yet played are shown as postponed.
kick-off (UTC).
The round in numbers
The round's figures against the season average before it: goals per match, how often both teams scored, how often there were at least 3 goals, and how results split between home wins, draws and away wins.
Table moves
How the table changed: each team's position before and after the round. At the top, the biggest climbs and drops.
| Team | before → after | pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 8 → 5 | +3 | 10 |
| SV 07 Elversberg | 9 → 6 | +3 | 10 |
| Hamburger SV | 12 → 9 | +3 | 9 |
| FC Augsburg | 6 → 10 | -4 | 8 |
| SC Freiburg | 1 → 3 | -2 | 13 |
| RB Leipzig | 5 → 7 | -2 | 9 |
Elo moves
The Elo rating before and after the round. It rises when a team gets more from a match than expected and falls when it gets less; beating a strong opponent moves it more than beating a weak one.
| Team | before → after | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | 1470 → 1476 | +6.1 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 1511 → 1516 | +5.5 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1508 → 1513 | +4.8 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1600 → 1594 | -6.1 |
| FC Schalke 04 | 1497 → 1492 | -5.5 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1442 → 1437 | -4.8 |
Streaks ended and new records
Streaks of at least 5 matches that ended in this round, and streaks that became a new own record (the longest in our database for that team).
| Team | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | conceding | 19 | ended |
| 1. FC Köln | scoring | 15 | ended |
| 1. FC Köln | both teams score | 15 | ended |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | conceding | 13 | ended |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 3+ goals | 8 | ended |
| Borussia Dortmund | scoring | 7 | ended |
| SC Freiburg | unbeaten | 6 | ended |
| 1. FC Köln | conceding | 20 | new own record old record: 19 |
| SV Werder Bremen | conceding | 13 | new own record old record: 12 |
| SV Werder Bremen | both teams score | 6 | new own record old record: 5 |
What the model said 3 of 6 hit · Brier 0.5289
Only estimates frozen within the last hour before each match; nothing recomputed afterwards. “Hit” = the most probable result was the real one. The round's Brier score: 0 = perfect, 0.6667 = random guessing. “Surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model (higher = more surprising).
| result | 1 / X / 2 | model's pick | surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin – Dortmund | 0–0 | 17% / 22% / 61% | 2 · miss | 1.50 |
| HSV – Stuttgart | 1–0 | 23% / 23% / 54% | 2 · miss | 1.49 |
| M'gladbach – Hoffenheim | 1–2 | 40% / 23% / 37% | 1 · miss | 1.00 |
| Frankfurt – 1. FC Köln | 1–0 | 57% / 20% / 23% | 1 · hit | 0.56 |
| Leverkusen – Freiburg | 2–1 | 60% / 21% / 20% | 1 · hit | 0.52 |
| Bayern – RB Leipzig | 6–1 | 76% / 14% / 10% | 1 · hit | 0.28 |
How the chances moved
The difference between the simulator's chances before the round and after it: who gained and who lost the most for 1st place, the top 4 and the bottom 3.
1st place
| Team | before → after | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München | 95% → 97% | +2 pp |
| 1. FC Köln | 0% → 0% | 0 pp |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 0% → 0% | 0 pp |
| Borussia Dortmund | 4% → 2% | -2 pp |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1% → 1% | -0 pp |
| RB Leipzig | 0% → 0% | -0 pp |
top 4
| Team | before → after | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| SV 07 Elversberg | 23% → 34% | +11 pp |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 75% → 83% | +7 pp |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 5% → 8% | +4 pp |
| VfB Stuttgart | 33% → 23% | -10 pp |
| RB Leipzig | 42% → 36% | -7 pp |
| FC Schalke 04 | 4% → 1% | -3 pp |
bottom 3
| Team | before → after | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 62% → 73% | +10 pp |
| FC Schalke 04 | 5% → 14% | +9 pp |
| 1. FC Köln | 34% → 41% | +7 pp |
| Hamburger SV | 54% → 37% | -17 pp |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 24% → 15% | -8 pp |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 8% → 6% | -2 pp |
run before: 16 Oct 2026 06:05 · run after: 18 Oct 2026 18:17
Updated 25 Oct 2026 05:37