RadarFooty BackAccountRO

Bundesliga · Matchday 5

2026-27 · 9 Oct 2026 – 11 Oct 2026 ← matchday 4 matchday 6 →

Round on radar: all leagues, before and after

Results 9 played

Every match of the round with the final score. Matches not yet played are shown as postponed.

Borussia Dortmund2–2SV Werder Bremen
1. FSV Mainz 053–4Bayer 04 Leverkusen
SC Paderborn 070–2VfB Stuttgart
1. FC Union Berlin1–0SV 07 Elversberg
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim2–3Hamburger SV
FC Augsburg2–2FC Bayern München
RB Leipzig6–0Eintracht Frankfurt
1. FC Köln2–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
SC Freiburg2–1FC Schalke 04

kick-off (UTC).

The round in numbers

The round's figures against the season average before it: goals per match, how often both teams scored, how often there were at least 3 goals, and how results split between home wins, draws and away wins.

35goals3.89 per match · season before this round: 3.81
66.7%both teams scoredseason before this round: 58.3%
77.8%3+ goalsseason before this round: 77.8%
4 / 2 / 3home / draw / away

Table moves

How the table changed: each team's position before and after the round. At the top, the biggest climbs and drops.

Teambefore → afterpts
RB Leipzig9 → 5+49
VfB Stuttgart15 → 11+46
Hamburger SV16 → 12+46
Eintracht Frankfurt10 → 14-45
SC Paderborn 0712 → 15-34
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim14 → 17-33

Elo moves

The Elo rating before and after the round. It rises when a team gets more from a match than expected and falls when it gets less; beating a strong opponent moves it more than beating a weak one.

Teambefore → afterΔ
RB Leipzig1586 → 1593+7.4
VfB Stuttgart1594 → 1600+6.5
Hamburger SV1464 → 1470+6.4
Eintracht Frankfurt1526 → 1519-7.4
SC Paderborn 071498 → 1492-6.5
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1515 → 1508-6.4

Streaks ended and new records

Streaks of at least 5 matches that ended in this round, and streaks that became a new own record (the longest in our database for that team).

Team
Eintracht Frankfurtscoring13ended
Eintracht Frankfurtboth teams score12ended
1. FC Union Berlin3+ goals10ended
VfB Stuttgartconceding9ended
Borussia Dortmundwins in a row6ended
1. FC Kölnconceding19new own record old record: 18
Hamburger SVconceding19new own record old record: 18
1. FC Kölnscoring15new own record old record: 14
1. FC Kölnboth teams score15new own record old record: 14
Eintracht Frankfurtconceding13new own record old record: 12
SV Werder Bremenconceding12new own record old record: 11

What the model said 3 of 6 hit · Brier 0.8141

Only estimates frozen within the last hour before each match; nothing recomputed afterwards. “Hit” = the most probable result was the real one. The round's Brier score: 0 = perfect, 0.6667 = random guessing. “Surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model (higher = more surprising).

result1 / X / 2model's picksurprise
Augsburg – Bayern2–28% / 14% / 78%2 · miss2.00
Dortmund – Bremen2–271% / 18% / 11%1 · miss1.71
Hoffenheim – HSV2–357% / 23% / 20%1 · miss1.60
1. FC Köln – M'gladbach2–142% / 24% / 33%1 · hit0.86
Mainz – Leverkusen3–431% / 25% / 44%2 · hit0.82
RB Leipzig – Frankfurt6–052% / 22% / 26%1 · hit0.66

How the chances moved

The difference between the simulator's chances before the round and after it: who gained and who lost the most for 1st place, the top 4 and the bottom 3.

1st place

Teambefore → afterΔ
Bayer 04 Leverkusen0% → 1%+1 pp
Borussia Dortmund3% → 4%+0 pp
RB Leipzig0% → 0%+0 pp
FC Bayern München96% → 95%-1 pp
SV 07 Elversberg0% → 0%-0 pp
1. FC Köln0% → 0%0 pp

top 4

Teambefore → afterΔ
RB Leipzig22% → 43%+22 pp
VfB Stuttgart21% → 33%+12 pp
Bayer 04 Leverkusen64% → 75%+10 pp
SV 07 Elversberg58% → 23%-35 pp
FC Schalke 0411% → 4%-7 pp
Eintracht Frankfurt5% → 3%-2 pp

bottom 3

Teambefore → afterΔ
SC Paderborn 076% → 24%+18 pp
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim13% → 24%+11 pp
Borussia Mönchengladbach51% → 62%+10 pp
Hamburger SV72% → 54%-18 pp
1. FC Union Berlin69% → 57%-12 pp
1. FC Köln46% → 34%-12 pp

run before: 9 Oct 2026 06:05 · run after: 11 Oct 2026 18:17

Updated 25 Oct 2026 05:37