1. FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Bundesliga · Matchday 5 · 10 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC · referee: Max Burda (4 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

3–4 · hit · surprise: 0.82 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

31%1 · Mainz≈ 1 in 3.28

25%X≈ 1 in 3.95

44%2 · Leverkusen≈ 1 in 2.26

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 16 matches. The away side are 4 points above the bottom three with 30 matches left. The model estimates 44% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position7 vs 6

Elo rating1515 vs 1645

Last 5WDWLW homeDLWDW away

Rest days21 vs 20

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 12% · 1–2: 9% · 0–1: 7%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	7%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	6%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	7%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 47% vs 57%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Mainz	Leverkusen	League
League position	7th of 18 · 7 pts	6th of 18 · 7 pts	—
Elo rating	1515	1645	—
Last 5	WDWLW	DLWDW	—
Points rate (last 10)	47%	57%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.9	2.0	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.6	1.3	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	40%	43%	54% · 38%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	7 of 10	63%
3+ goals in the match (10)	6 of 10	7 of 10	66%
Days of rest	21	20	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 50% vs 45% · league 37%

MainzLeverkusenleague, year before the match · n = 289

	Mainz	league	Leverkusen
Winswon the match	50%10 of 2030–70%	37%216 of 57834–41%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Scoresscored at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	79%459 of 57876–83%	95%19 of 2076–99%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	66%191 of 28960–71%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	63%182 of 28957–68%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	79%459 of 57876–83%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	33%189 of 57829–37%	50%10 of 2030–70%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 10 vs 8

Mainz · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDWLW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

12:6goals

Leverkusen · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLWDW

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

11:6goals

Mainz · Last 5 at home n = 5

LLLDL

1pts

0-1-4W-D-L

5:11goals

Leverkusen · Last 5 away n = 5

WWLLD

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

8:9goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 4 → 10 vs 9 → 8

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Mainz	Leverkusen
Points (of 15)	4 → 10 ▲	9 → 8 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.4 → 2.4 ▲	1.8 → 2.2 ▲
Goals conceded per match	2.0 → 1.2 ▼	1.4 → 1.2 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1510 → 1463 (4 of 5) easier opponents	1549 → 1500 (4 of 5) easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+12 (1515)	−1 (1645)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 21 vs 20

	Mainz	Leverkusen
days since last match	21	20
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	7 (7 pts)	6 (7 pts)
points off 1st	6	6
points off top 4	1	1
points above bottom 3	4	4
matches left (incl. this one)	30	30
coach (league matches led before)	Urs Fischer since 7 Dec 2025 · 25 matches	Carles Martínez Novell since 4 Jun 2026 · 4 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 150 km
weather at kick-off	15 °C · 0.0 mm · 12 km/h	forecast from 10 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Mainz 0-2-3 (n = 5)

	home		away
28 Feb 2026	Leverkusen	1–1	Mainz
18 Oct 2025	Mainz	3–4	Leverkusen
17 May 2025	Mainz	2–2	Leverkusen
14 Jan 2025	Leverkusen	1–0	Mainz
23 Feb 2024	Leverkusen	2–1	Mainz

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

1. FSV Mainz 05 · scoring: 3

		now	longest in our database
1. FSV Mainz 05	scoring	3	11
1. FSV Mainz 05	3+ goals	3	7
Bayer 04 Leverkusen	unbeaten	3	35
Bayer 04 Leverkusen	scoring	16	23

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	7%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	6%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	7%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	7%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	6%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	7%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	7%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	6%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	7%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%