TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburger SV

Bundesliga · Matchday 5 · 10 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC · referee: Harm Osmers (47 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

2–3 · miss · surprise: 1.60 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

57%1 · Hoffenheim≈ 1 in 1.75

23%X≈ 1 in 4.42

20%2 · HSV≈ 1 in 4.97

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side have scored in each of their last 4 matches. The home side last played 19 days ago, the away side 21 days ago. The model estimates 57% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position14 vs 16

Elo rating1515 vs 1464

Last 5LLLWL homeDLLLW away

Rest days19 vs 21

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 10% · 2–1: 10% · 2–0: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 47% vs 33%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Hoffenheim	HSV	League
League position	14th of 18 · 3 pts	16th of 18 · 3 pts	—
Elo rating	1515	1464	—
Last 5	LLLWL	DLLLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	47%	33%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.7	1.0	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	2.1	2.6	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	57%	37%	54% · 38%
Both teams score (10)	8 of 10	6 of 10	63%
3+ goals in the match (10)	9 of 10	8 of 10	66%
Days of rest	19	21	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 40% vs 30% · league 37%

HoffenheimHSVleague, year before the match · n = 289

	Hoffenheim	league	HSV
Winswon the match	40%8 of 2022–61%	37%216 of 57834–41%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	79%459 of 57876–83%	75%15 of 2053–89%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	80%16 of 2058–92%	66%191 of 28960–71%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	63%182 of 28957–68%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Concedesconceded at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	79%459 of 57876–83%	95%19 of 2076–99%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	33%189 of 57829–37%	20%4 of 208–42%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 3 vs 4

Hoffenheim · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLLWL

3pts

1-0-4W-D-L

7:14goals

HSV · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLLLW

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

3:14goals

Hoffenheim · Last 5 at home n = 5

WDWLW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

10:8goals

HSV · Last 5 away n = 5

LWDLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

4:12goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 11 → 3 vs 6 → 4

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Hoffenheim	HSV
Points (of 15)	11 → 3 ▼	6 → 4 ▼
Goals scored per match	2.0 → 1.4 ▼	1.4 → 0.6 ▼
Goals conceded per match	1.4 → 2.8 ▲	2.4 → 2.8 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1526 → 1524 easier opponents	1526 → 1561 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−21 (1515)	−13 (1464)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 19 vs 21

	Hoffenheim	HSV
days since last match	19	21
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	14 (3 pts)	16 (3 pts)
points off 1st	10	10
points off top 4	5	5
points above bottom 3	0	bottom 3 · 0 off 15th
matches left (incl. this one)	30	30
coach (league matches led before)	Christian Ilzer since 15 Nov 2024 · 62 matches	Merlin Polzin since 25 Nov 2024 · 38 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 490 km
weather at kick-off	15 °C · 0.0 mm · 18 km/h	forecast from 10 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Hoffenheim 2-0-0 (n = 2)

	home		away
25 Apr 2026	HSV	1–2	Hoffenheim
13 Dec 2025	Hoffenheim	4–1	HSV

All 3 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim · scoring: 4

		now	longest in our database
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	scoring	4	16
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	conceding	5	27
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	both teams score	4	11
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	3+ goals	5	9
Hamburger SV	conceding	18	18
Hamburger SV	3+ goals	3	5

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%