RB Leipzig 6–0 Eintracht Frankfurt

Bundesliga · Matchday 5 · 10 Oct 2026 16:30 UTC · referee: Daniel Siebert (52 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

6–0 · hit · surprise: 0.66 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

52%1 · RB Leipzig≈ 1 in 1.93

22%X≈ 1 in 4.57

26%2 · Frankfurt≈ 1 in 3.79

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 13 matches. The away side travel roughly 300 km. The model estimates 52% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position9 vs 10

Elo rating1586 vs 1526

Last 5LWLWL homeDDLWD away

Rest days20 vs 21

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 9% · 2–1: 9% · 2–2: 7%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	6%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 60% vs 33%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	RB Leipzig	Frankfurt	League
League position	9th of 18 · 6 pts	10th of 18 · 5 pts	—
Elo rating	1586	1526	—
Last 5	LWLWL	DDLWD	—
Points rate (last 10)	60%	33%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	2.0	1.8	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.6	2.2	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	77%	37%	53% · 38%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	10 of 10	63%
3+ goals in the match (10)	8 of 10	9 of 10	66%
Days of rest	20	21	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 55% vs 25% · league 37%

RB LeipzigFrankfurtleague, year before the match · n = 294

	RB Leipzig	league	Frankfurt
Winswon the match	55%11 of 2034–74%	37%220 of 58834–41%	25%5 of 2011–47%
Scoresscored at least once	90%18 of 2070–97%	79%467 of 58876–82%	95%19 of 2076–99%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	80%16 of 2058–92%	66%194 of 29460–71%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	63%185 of 29457–68%	80%16 of 2058–92%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	79%467 of 58876–82%	80%16 of 2058–92%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	32%191 of 58829–36%	35%7 of 2018–57%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 6 vs 6

RB Leipzig · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWLWL

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

10:9goals

Frankfurt · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DDLWD

6pts

1-3-1W-D-L

11:12goals

RB Leipzig · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWWWW

15pts

5-0-0W-D-L

14:2goals

Frankfurt · Last 5 away n = 5

WDLDW

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

11:9goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 12 → 6 vs 4 → 6

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	RB Leipzig	Frankfurt
Points (of 15)	12 → 6 ▼	4 → 6 ▲
Goals scored per match	2.0 → 2.0 =	1.4 → 2.2 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.4 → 1.8 ▲	2.0 → 2.4 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1499 → 1503 tougher opponents	1518 → 1514 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−15 (1586)	−4 (1526)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 20 vs 21

	RB Leipzig	Frankfurt
days since last match	20	21
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	9 (6 pts)	10 (5 pts)
points off 1st	7	8
points off top 4	2	3
points above bottom 3	3	2
matches left (incl. this one)	30	30
coach (league matches led before)	Martín Demichelis since 22 Jun 2026 · 4 matches	Adi Hütter since 31 May 2026 · 4 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 300 km
weather at kick-off	14 °C · 0.0 mm · 11 km/h	forecast from 10 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

RB Leipzig 3-1-1 (n = 5)

	home		away
18 Apr 2026	Frankfurt	1–3	RB Leipzig
6 Dec 2025	RB Leipzig	6–0	Frankfurt
26 Apr 2025	Frankfurt	4–0	RB Leipzig
15 Dec 2024	RB Leipzig	2–1	Frankfurt
18 May 2024	Frankfurt	2–2	RB Leipzig

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Eintracht Frankfurt · scoring: 13

		now	longest in our database
Eintracht Frankfurt	scoring	13	21
Eintracht Frankfurt	conceding	12	12
Eintracht Frankfurt	both teams score	12	12
Eintracht Frankfurt	3+ goals	7	9

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	6%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	6%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	6%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%