Borussia Dortmund 2–2 SV Werder Bremen

Bundesliga · Matchday 5 · 9 Oct 2026 18:30 UTC · referee: Christian Dingert (41 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

2–2 · miss · surprise: 1.71 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

71%1 · Dortmund≈ 1 in 1.42

18%X≈ 1 in 5.51

11%2 · Bremen≈ 1 in 8.88

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are unbeaten in their last 6 matches. The home side are top of the table with 30 matches left. The model estimates 71% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position1 vs 8

Elo rating1659 vs 1464

Last 5WWWWW homeLLWDW away

Rest days20 vs 20

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

2–0: 11% · 2–1: 10% · 1–0: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	9%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 70% vs 37%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Dortmund	Bremen	League
League position	1st of 18 · 12 pts	8th of 18 · 7 pts	—
Elo rating	1659	1464	—
Last 5	WWWWW	LLWDW	—
Points rate (last 10)	70%	37%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.9	1.4	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	0.8	1.9	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	80%	27%	54% · 38%
Both teams score (10)	3 of 10	8 of 10	63%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 10	6 of 10	66%
Days of rest	20	20	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 75% vs 30% · league 38%

DortmundBremenleague, year before the match · n = 288

	Dortmund	league	Bremen
Winswon the match	75%15 of 2053–89%	38%216 of 57634–42%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	90%18 of 2070–97%	79%457 of 57676–82%	70%14 of 2048–85%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	66%190 of 28860–71%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	63%181 of 28857–68%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Concedesconceded at least once	55%11 of 2034–74%	79%457 of 57676–82%	90%18 of 2070–97%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	33%189 of 57629–37%	15%3 of 205–36%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 15 vs 7

Dortmund · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWWWW

15pts

5-0-0W-D-L

11:2goals

Bremen · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLWDW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

8:10goals

Dortmund · Last 5 at home n = 5

LWWWW

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

12:3goals

Bremen · Last 5 away n = 5

LDLLD

2pts

0-2-3W-D-L

4:10goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 6 → 15 vs 4 → 7

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Dortmund	Bremen
Points (of 15)	6 → 15 ▲	4 → 7 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.6 → 2.2 ▲	1.2 → 1.6 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.2 → 0.4 ▼	1.8 → 2.0 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1533 → 1511 easier opponents	1500 → 1530 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+21 (1659)	+3 (1464)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 20 vs 20

	Dortmund	Bremen
days since last match	20	20
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	1 (12 pts)	8 (7 pts)
points off 1st	0	5
points off top 4	in top 4	0
points above bottom 3	9	4
matches left (incl. this one)	30	30
coach (league matches led before)	Niko Kovač since 30 Jan 2025 · 53 matches	Daniel Thioune since 4 Feb 2026 · 18 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 200 km
weather at kick-off	12 °C · 1.0 mm · 26 km/h	forecast from 9 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Dortmund 3-2-0 (n = 5)

	home		away
16 May 2026	Bremen	0–2	Dortmund
13 Jan 2026	Dortmund	3–0	Bremen
25 Jan 2025	Dortmund	2–2	Bremen
31 Aug 2024	Bremen	0–0	Dortmund
9 Mar 2024	Bremen	1–2	Dortmund

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Borussia Dortmund · unbeaten: 6

		now	longest in our database
Borussia Dortmund	unbeaten	6	16
Borussia Dortmund	wins in a row	6	6
Borussia Dortmund	scoring	6	36
SV Werder Bremen	unbeaten	3	8
SV Werder Bremen	scoring	4	13
SV Werder Bremen	conceding	11	11
SV Werder Bremen	both teams score	4	5

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	9%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	9%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	9%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%