RadarBundesliga · Matchday 4
2026-27 · 18 Sep 2026 – 20 Sep 2026 ← matchday 3 matchday 5 →
Round on radar: all leagues, before and after
Results 9 played
Every match of the round with the final score. Matches not yet played are shown as postponed.
kick-off (UTC).
The round in numbers
The round's figures against the season average before it: goals per match, how often both teams scored, how often there were at least 3 goals, and how results split between home wins, draws and away wins.
Table moves
How the table changed: each team's position before and after the round. At the top, the biggest climbs and drops.
| Team | before → after | pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 | 15 → 12 | +3 | 4 |
| FC Bayern München | 4 → 2 | +2 | 10 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 7 → 5 | +2 | 7 |
| RB Leipzig | 5 → 9 | -4 | 6 |
| SC Freiburg | 1 → 3 | -2 | 10 |
| FC Augsburg | 3 → 4 | -1 | 7 |
Elo moves
The Elo rating before and after the round. It rises when a team gets more from a match than expected and falls when it gets less; beating a strong opponent moves it more than beating a weak one.
| Team | before → after | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 | 1491 → 1498 | +7.1 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1640 → 1645 | +5.4 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1654 → 1659 | +4.9 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1522 → 1515 | -7.1 |
| RB Leipzig | 1591 → 1586 | -5.4 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1599 → 1594 | -4.9 |
Streaks ended and new records
Streaks of at least 5 matches that ended in this round, and streaks that became a new own record (the longest in our database for that team).
| Team | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | scoring | 11 | ended |
| VfB Stuttgart | scoring | 9 | ended |
| RB Leipzig | 3+ goals | 8 | ended |
| VfB Stuttgart | both teams score | 8 | ended |
| VfB Stuttgart | 3+ goals | 6 | ended |
| 1. FC Köln | conceding | 18 | new own record old record: 17 |
| Hamburger SV | conceding | 18 | new own record old record: 17 |
| 1. FC Köln | scoring | 14 | new own record old record: 13 |
| 1. FC Köln | both teams score | 14 | new own record old record: 13 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | conceding | 12 | new own record old record: 11 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | both teams score | 12 | new own record old record: 11 |
| SV Werder Bremen | conceding | 11 | new own record old record: 10 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin | 3+ goals | 10 | new own record old record: 9 |
What the model said
Only estimates frozen within the last hour before each match; nothing recomputed afterwards. “Hit” = the most probable result was the real one. The round's Brier score: 0 = perfect, 0.6667 = random guessing. “Surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model (higher = more surprising).
No estimate was frozen before the matches of this round. The model was published on 24 Sep 2026; estimates are frozen within the last hour before each match, starting with the first round after publication.
How the chances moved
The difference between the simulator's chances before the round and after it: who gained and who lost the most for 1st place, the top 4 and the bottom 3.
No simulator run before this round; the comparison appears from the first round with a run before and one after.
Updated 25 Oct 2026 05:37