Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–1 SC Freiburg

Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · 18 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC · referee: Florian Badstübner (44 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

2–1 · hit · surprise: 0.51 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

60%1 · Leverkusen≈ 1 in 1.67

21%X≈ 1 in 4.84

20%2 · Freiburg≈ 1 in 5.10

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side have scored in each of their last 17 matches. The home side last played 8 days ago, the away side 6 days ago. The model estimates 60% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position4 vs 3

Elo rating1649 vs 1528

Last 5LWDWW homeWWWDW away

Rest days8 vs 6

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

2–1: 10% · 1–1: 9% · 2–0: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 57% vs 67%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Leverkusen	Freiburg	League
League position	4th of 18 · 10 pts	3rd of 18 · 13 pts	—
Elo rating	1649	1528	—
Last 5	LWDWW	WWWDW	—
Points rate (last 10)	57%	67%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	2.3	2.3	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.6	1.4	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	70%	37%	54% · 38%
Both teams score (10)	8 of 10	7 of 10	62%
3+ goals in the match (10)	8 of 10	8 of 10	66%
Days of rest	8	6	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 45% vs 50% · league 37%

LeverkusenFreiburgleague, year before the match · n = 303

	Leverkusen	league	Freiburg
Winswon the match	45%9 of 2026–66%	37%227 of 60634–41%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Scoresscored at least once	95%19 of 2076–99%	79%479 of 60676–82%	75%15 of 2053–89%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	66%199 of 30360–71%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	62%189 of 30357–68%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	79%479 of 60676–82%	80%16 of 2058–92%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	32%195 of 60629–36%	35%7 of 2018–57%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 10 vs 13

Leverkusen · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWDWW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

14:8goals

Freiburg · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWWDW

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

14:4goals

Leverkusen · Last 5 at home n = 5

LWDWW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

12:4goals

Freiburg · Last 5 away n = 5

WLLWD

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

6:9goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 10 vs 7 → 13

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Leverkusen	Freiburg
Points (of 15)	7 → 10 ▲	7 → 13 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.8 → 2.8 ▲	1.8 → 2.8 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.6 → 1.6 =	2.0 → 0.8 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1514 → 1510 (4 of 5) easier opponents	1506 → 1489 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+5 (1649)	+24 (1528)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 8 vs 6

	Leverkusen	Freiburg
days since last match	8	6
matches in last 7 days	0	1
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position	4 (10 pts)	3 (13 pts)
points off 1st	4	1
points off top 4	in top 4	in top 4
points above bottom 3	5	8
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
coach (league matches led before)	Carles Martínez Novell since 4 Jun 2026 · 5 matches	no data
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 340 km
weather at kick-off	12 °C · 0.0 mm · 9 km/h	forecast from 18 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Leverkusen 3-2-0 (n = 5)

	home		away
7 Mar 2026	Freiburg	3–3	Leverkusen
26 Oct 2025	Leverkusen	2–0	Freiburg
4 May 2025	Freiburg	2–2	Leverkusen
21 Dec 2024	Leverkusen	5–1	Freiburg
17 Mar 2024	Freiburg	2–3	Leverkusen

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen · unbeaten: 4

		now	longest in our database
Bayer 04 Leverkusen	unbeaten	4	35
Bayer 04 Leverkusen	scoring	17	23
SC Freiburg	unbeaten	6	7
SC Freiburg	scoring	8	14
SC Freiburg	3+ goals	3	11

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%