FC Bayern München 6–1 RB Leipzig

Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · 17 Oct 2026 16:30 UTC · referee: Tobias Stieler (48 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

6–1 · hit · surprise: 0.28 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

76%1 · Bayern≈ 1 in 1.32

14%X≈ 1 in 7.16

10%2 · RB Leipzig≈ 1 in 9.72

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are unbeaten in their last 20 matches. The away side travel roughly 350 km. The model estimates 76% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position3 vs 5

Elo rating1761 vs 1593

Last 5WDWWD homeWLWLW away

Rest days3 vs 3

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

2–1: 8% · 3–1: 8% · 2–0: 7%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	4%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	7%	8%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	6%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 4%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 80% vs 60%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Bayern	RB Leipzig	League
League position	3rd of 18 · 11 pts	5th of 18 · 9 pts	—
Elo rating	1761	1593	—
Last 5	WDWWD	WLWLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	80%	60%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	3.3	2.5	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.3	1.6	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	83%	43%	54% · 38%
Both teams score (10)	7 of 10	6 of 10	62%
3+ goals in the match (10)	8 of 10	9 of 10	66%
Days of rest	3	3	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 75% vs 60% · league 37%

BayernRB Leipzigleague, year before the match · n = 303

	Bayern	league	RB Leipzig
Winswon the match	75%15 of 2053–89%	37%227 of 60634–41%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Scoresscored at least once	95%19 of 2076–99%	79%479 of 60676–82%	90%18 of 2070–97%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	85%17 of 2064–95%	66%199 of 30360–71%	85%17 of 2064–95%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	62%189 of 30357–68%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Concedesconceded at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	79%479 of 60676–82%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	32%195 of 60629–36%	45%9 of 2026–66%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 11 vs 9

Bayern · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDWWD

11pts

3-2-0W-D-L

16:4goals

RB Leipzig · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLWLW

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

15:5goals

Bayern · Last 5 at home n = 5

WDWWW

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

24:7goals

RB Leipzig · Last 5 away n = 5

WLLLL

3pts

1-0-4W-D-L

6:14goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 13 → 11 vs 9 → 9

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Bayern	RB Leipzig
Points (of 15)	13 → 11 ▼	9 → 9 =
Goals scored per match	3.4 → 3.2 ▼	2.0 → 3.0 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.8 → 0.8 ▼	2.2 → 1.0 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1473 → 1505 tougher opponents	1506 → 1510 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+4 (1761)	+3 (1593)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 3 vs 3

	Bayern	RB Leipzig
days since last match	3	3
matches in last 7 days	1	2
matches in last 14 days	2	2
position	3 (11 pts)	5 (9 pts)
points off 1st	2	4
points off top 4	in top 4	1
points above bottom 3	7	5
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
coach (league matches led before)	Vincent Kompany since 1 Jul 2024 · 73 matches	Martín Demichelis since 22 Jun 2026 · 5 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 350 km
weather at kick-off	13 °C · 0.0 mm · 12 km/h	forecast from 17 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Bayern 4-1-0 (n = 5)

	home		away
17 Jan 2026	RB Leipzig	1–5	Bayern
22 Aug 2025	Bayern	6–0	RB Leipzig
3 May 2025	RB Leipzig	3–3	Bayern
20 Dec 2024	Bayern	5–1	RB Leipzig
24 Feb 2024	Bayern	2–1	RB Leipzig

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

FC Bayern München · unbeaten: 20

		now	longest in our database
FC Bayern München	unbeaten	20	27
FC Bayern München	scoring	3	47
FC Bayern München	3+ goals	3	26

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	4%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	7%	8%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	6%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	4%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	7%	8%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	6%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	4%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	7%	8%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	6%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%