Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · 18 Oct 2026 15:30 UTC · referee: Sören Storks (34 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–2 · miss · surprise: 1.00 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

40%1 · M'gladbach≈ 1 in 2.51

23%X≈ 1 in 4.26

37%2 · Hoffenheim≈ 1 in 2.73

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are winless in their last 5 matches. The away side are 17th, 2 points from 15th place, with 29 matches left. The model estimates 40% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position18 vs 17

Elo rating1442 vs 1508

Last 5LLLLL homeLLWLL away

Rest days7 vs 8

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 10% · 1–2: 8% · 2–1: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	10%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 27% vs 43%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	M'gladbach	Hoffenheim	League
League position	18th of 18 · 0 pts	17th of 18 · 3 pts	—
Elo rating	1442	1508	—
Last 5	LLLLL	LLWLL	—
Points rate (last 10)	27%	43%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.4	1.7	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	2.2	2.2	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	50%	37%	54% · 37%
Both teams score (10)	5 of 10	8 of 10	62%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	9 of 10	66%
Days of rest	7	8	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 20% vs 35% · league 38%

M'gladbachHoffenheimleague, year before the match · n = 299

	M'gladbach	league	Hoffenheim
Winswon the match	20%4 of 208–42%	38%225 of 59834–42%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Scoresscored at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	79%472 of 59875–82%	85%17 of 2064–95%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	66%196 of 29960–71%	85%17 of 2064–95%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	62%186 of 29957–68%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	79%472 of 59875–82%	90%18 of 2070–97%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	20%4 of 208–42%	32%192 of 59828–36%	45%9 of 2026–66%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 0 vs 3

M'gladbach · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLLLL

0pts

0-0-5W-D-L

7:18goals

Hoffenheim · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLWLL

3pts

1-0-4W-D-L

9:13goals

M'gladbach · Last 5 at home n = 5

DWWLL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

12:9goals

Hoffenheim · Last 5 away n = 5

DWLLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

7:13goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 8 → 0 vs 10 → 3

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	M'gladbach	Hoffenheim
Points (of 15)	8 → 0 ▼	10 → 3 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.4 → 1.4 =	1.6 → 1.8 ▲
Goals conceded per match	0.8 → 3.6 ▲	1.8 → 2.6 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1519 → 1508 easier opponents	1526 → 1525 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−26 (1442)	−18 (1508)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 8

	M'gladbach	Hoffenheim
days since last match	7	8
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position	18 (0 pts)	17 (3 pts)
points off 1st	14	11
points off top 4	10	7
points above bottom 3	bottom 3 · 5 off 15th	bottom 3 · 2 off 15th
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
coach (league matches led before)	unconfirmed	Christian Ilzer since 15 Nov 2024 · 63 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 280 km
weather at kick-off	10 °C · 0.0 mm · 9 km/h	forecast from 18 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

M'gladbach 2-1-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
16 May 2026	M'gladbach	4–0	Hoffenheim
14 Jan 2026	Hoffenheim	5–1	M'gladbach
3 May 2025	M'gladbach	4–4	Hoffenheim
21 Dec 2024	Hoffenheim	1–2	M'gladbach
20 Apr 2024	Hoffenheim	4–3	M'gladbach

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Borussia Mönchengladbach · winless: 5

		now	longest in our database
Borussia Mönchengladbach	winless	5	15
Borussia Mönchengladbach	conceding	5	10
Borussia Mönchengladbach	3+ goals	7	13
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	scoring	5	16
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	conceding	6	27
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	both teams score	5	11
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	3+ goals	6	9

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	10%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	10%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	10%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%