1. FC Union Berlin 0–0 Borussia Dortmund

Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · 17 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC · referee: Daniel Schlager (46 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

0–0 · miss · surprise: 1.50 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

17%1 · Union Berlin≈ 1 in 5.93

22%X≈ 1 in 4.47

61%2 · Dortmund≈ 1 in 1.65

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side are unbeaten in their last 7 matches. The home side last played 7 days ago, the away side 2 days ago. The model estimates 61% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position16 vs 2

Elo rating1434 vs 1656

Last 5DLLLW homeWWWWD away

Rest days7 vs 2

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 11% · 0–1: 10% · 0–2: 10%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	10%	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
1	4%	11%	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
2	2%	5%	5%	3%	2%	1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 37% vs 73%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Union Berlin	Dortmund	League
League position	16th of 18 · 4 pts	2nd of 18 · 13 pts	—
Elo rating	1434	1656	—
Last 5	DLLLW	WWWWD	—
Points rate (last 10)	37%	73%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.6	2.1	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	2.5	0.9	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	43%	73%	54% · 38%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	4 of 10	63%
3+ goals in the match (10)	9 of 10	6 of 10	66%
Days of rest	7	2	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 25% vs 70% · league 38%

Union BerlinDortmundleague, year before the match · n = 298

	Union Berlin	league	Dortmund
Winswon the match	25%5 of 2011–47%	38%224 of 59634–42%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Scoresscored at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	79%473 of 59676–82%	90%18 of 2070–97%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	66%197 of 29861–71%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	63%187 of 29857–68%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	79%473 of 59676–82%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	15%3 of 205–36%	32%192 of 59629–36%	45%9 of 2026–66%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 4 vs 13

Union Berlin · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLLLW

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

5:17goals

Dortmund · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWWWD

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

11:4goals

Union Berlin · Last 5 at home n = 5

DWDLW

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

11:8goals

Dortmund · Last 5 away n = 5

LLWWW

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

7:5goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 4 vs 9 → 13

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Union Berlin	Dortmund
Points (of 15)	7 → 4 ▼	9 → 13 ▲
Goals scored per match	2.2 → 1.0 ▼	2.0 → 2.2 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.6 → 3.4 ▲	1.0 → 0.8 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1491 → 1587 tougher opponents	1496 → 1511 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−7 (1434)	+13 (1656)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 2

	Union Berlin	Dortmund
days since last match	7	2
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	1	2
position	16 (4 pts)	2 (13 pts)
points off 1st	9	0
points off top 4	6	in top 4
points above bottom 3	bottom 3 · 0 off 15th	9
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
coach (league matches led before)	Mauro Lustrinelli since 1 Jul 2026 · 5 matches	Niko Kovač since 30 Jan 2025 · 54 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 430 km
weather at kick-off	12 °C · 0.0 mm · 13 km/h	forecast from 17 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Union Berlin 1-0-4 (n = 5)

	home		away
24 Jan 2026	Union Berlin	0–3	Dortmund
31 Aug 2025	Dortmund	3–0	Union Berlin
22 Feb 2025	Dortmund	6–0	Union Berlin
5 Oct 2024	Union Berlin	2–1	Dortmund
2 Mar 2024	Union Berlin	0–2	Dortmund

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Borussia Dortmund · unbeaten: 7

		now	longest in our database
Borussia Dortmund	unbeaten	7	16
Borussia Dortmund	scoring	7	36

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	10%	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
1	4%	11%	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
2	2%	5%	5%	3%	2%	1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	10%	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
1	4%	11%	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
2	2%	5%	5%	3%	2%	1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	10%	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
1	4%	11%	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
2	2%	5%	5%	3%	2%	1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%