Hamburger SV 1–0 VfB Stuttgart

Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · 17 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC · referee: Robert Hartmann (40 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–0 · miss · surprise: 1.49 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

23%1 · HSV≈ 1 in 4.42

23%X≈ 1 in 4.32

54%2 · Stuttgart≈ 1 in 1.84

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side took 6 points from their last 5 matches, the away side 6 from their last 5. The home side last played 7 days ago, the away side 2 days ago. The model estimates 54% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position13 vs 12

Elo rating1470 vs 1600

Last 5LLLWW homeLWLLW away

Rest days7 vs 2

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 11% · 1–2: 10% · 0–1: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	8%	8%	5%	3%	1%	<1%
1	5%	11%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	3%	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 43% vs 40%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	HSV	Stuttgart	League
League position	13th of 18 · 6 pts	12th of 18 · 6 pts	—
Elo rating	1470	1600	—
Last 5	LLLWW	LWLLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	43%	40%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.3	1.9	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	2.4	2.0	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	40%	33%	54% · 38%
Both teams score (10)	7 of 10	8 of 10	63%
3+ goals in the match (10)	8 of 10	7 of 10	66%
Days of rest	7	2	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 45% · league 38%

HSVStuttgartleague, year before the match · n = 298

	HSV	league	Stuttgart
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	38%224 of 59634–42%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Scoresscored at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	79%473 of 59676–82%	90%18 of 2070–97%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	66%197 of 29861–71%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	63%187 of 29857–68%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Concedesconceded at least once	95%19 of 2076–99%	79%473 of 59676–82%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	20%4 of 208–42%	32%192 of 59629–36%	40%8 of 2022–61%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 6 vs 6

HSV · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLLWW

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

5:15goals

Stuttgart · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWLLW

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

8:9goals

HSV · Last 5 at home n = 5

DLWLW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

7:11goals

Stuttgart · Last 5 away n = 5

DDLLW

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

9:12goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 6 vs 6 → 6

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	HSV	Stuttgart
Points (of 15)	7 → 6 ▼	6 → 6 =
Goals scored per match	1.6 → 1.0 ▼	2.2 → 1.6 ▼
Goals conceded per match	1.8 → 3.0 ▲	2.2 → 1.8 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1535 → 1535 the same	1588 → 1571 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−9 (1470)	−5 (1600)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 2

	HSV	Stuttgart
days since last match	7	2
matches in last 7 days	1	2
matches in last 14 days	1	2
position	13 (6 pts)	12 (6 pts)
points off 1st	7	7
points off top 4	4	4
points above bottom 3	2	2
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
coach (league matches led before)	Merlin Polzin since 25 Nov 2024 · 39 matches	Sebastian Hoeneß since 3 Apr 2023 · 107 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 540 km
weather at kick-off	14 °C · 0.0 mm · 13 km/h	forecast from 17 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

HSV 1-0-1 (n = 2)

	home		away
12 Apr 2026	Stuttgart	4–0	HSV
30 Nov 2025	HSV	2–1	Stuttgart

All 3 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Hamburger SV · conceding: 19

		now	longest in our database
Hamburger SV	conceding	19	19
Hamburger SV	3+ goals	4	5

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	8%	8%	5%	3%	1%	<1%
1	5%	11%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	3%	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	8%	8%	5%	3%	1%	<1%
1	5%	11%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	3%	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	8%	8%	5%	3%	1%	<1%
1	5%	11%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	3%	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%