Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 1. FC Köln

Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · 16 Oct 2026 18:30 UTC · referee: Benjamin Brand (49 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–0 · hit · surprise: 0.57 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

57%1 · Frankfurt≈ 1 in 1.76

20%X≈ 1 in 4.93

23%2 · 1. FC Köln≈ 1 in 4.37

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 15 matches. The away side are 3 points above the bottom three with 29 matches left. The model estimates 57% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position14 vs 10

Elo rating1519 vs 1424

Last 5DLWDL homeWLDLW away

Rest days6 vs 5

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

2–1: 9% · 1–1: 8% · 2–2: 7%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 23% vs 30%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Frankfurt	1. FC Köln	League
League position	14th of 18 · 5 pts	10th of 18 · 7 pts	—
Elo rating	1519	1424	—
Last 5	DLWDL	WLDLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	23%	30%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.6	1.4	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	2.7	2.3	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	40%	13%	54% · 38%
Both teams score (10)	9 of 10	10 of 10	63%
3+ goals in the match (10)	9 of 10	8 of 10	66%
Days of rest	6	5	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 25% vs 20% · league 38%

Frankfurt1. FC Kölnleague, year before the match · n = 297

	Frankfurt	league	1. FC Köln
Winswon the match	25%5 of 2011–47%	38%223 of 59434–42%	20%4 of 208–42%
Scoresscored at least once	90%18 of 2070–97%	79%472 of 59476–83%	95%19 of 2076–99%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	75%15 of 2053–89%	66%197 of 29761–71%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	75%15 of 2053–89%	63%187 of 29757–68%	90%18 of 2070–97%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	79%472 of 59476–83%	95%19 of 2076–99%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	30%6 of 2015–52%	32%192 of 59429–36%	20%4 of 208–42%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 5 vs 7

Frankfurt · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLWDL

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

9:16goals

1. FC Köln · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLDLW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

8:10goals

Frankfurt · Last 5 at home n = 5

LLDLD

2pts

0-2-3W-D-L

7:13goals

1. FC Köln · Last 5 away n = 5

DDLLL

2pts

0-2-3W-D-L

6:14goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 2 → 5 vs 2 → 7

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Frankfurt	1. FC Köln
Points (of 15)	2 → 5 ▲	2 → 7 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.4 → 1.8 ▲	1.2 → 1.6 ▲
Goals conceded per match	2.2 → 3.2 ▲	2.6 → 2.0 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1553 → 1510 easier opponents	1529 → 1498 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−11 (1519)	+3 (1424)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 6 vs 5

	Frankfurt	1. FC Köln
days since last match	6	5
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position	14 (5 pts)	10 (7 pts)
points off 1st	8	6
points off top 4	5	3
points above bottom 3	1	3
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
coach (league matches led before)	Adi Hütter since 31 May 2026 · 5 matches	René Wagner since 23 Mar 2026 · 12 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 160 km
weather at kick-off	15 °C · 0.0 mm · 1 km/h	forecast from 16 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Frankfurt 1-2-1 (n = 4)

	home		away
5 Apr 2026	Frankfurt	2–2	1. FC Köln
22 Nov 2025	1. FC Köln	3–4	Frankfurt
3 Feb 2024	1. FC Köln	2–0	Frankfurt
3 Sep 2023	Frankfurt	1–1	1. FC Köln

All 5 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Eintracht Frankfurt · conceding: 13

		now	longest in our database
Eintracht Frankfurt	conceding	13	13
Eintracht Frankfurt	3+ goals	8	9
1. FC Köln	scoring	15	15
1. FC Köln	conceding	19	19
1. FC Köln	both teams score	15	15

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%