RadarBundesliga · Matchday 7
2026-27 · 23 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026 ← matchday 6
Round on radar: all leagues, before and after
Results 7 played · 2 postponed
Every match of the round with the final score. Matches not yet played are shown as postponed.
kick-off (UTC).
The round in numbers
The round's figures against the season average before it: goals per match, how often both teams scored, how often there were at least 3 goals, and how results split between home wins, draws and away wins.
Table moves
How the table changed: each team's position before and after the round. At the top, the biggest climbs and drops.
| Team | before → after | pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 | 16 → 12 | +4 | 8 |
| RB Leipzig | 7 → 5 | +2 | 12 |
| SV Werder Bremen | 8 → 6 | +2 | 12 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 5 → 7 | -2 | 10 |
| SV 07 Elversberg | 6 → 8 | -2 | 10 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 11 → 13 | -2 | 8 |
Elo moves
The Elo rating before and after the round. It rises when a team gets more from a match than expected and falls when it gets less; beating a strong opponent moves it more than beating a weak one.
| Team | before → after | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1437 → 1445 | +7.7 |
| SV Werder Bremen | 1466 → 1473 | +6.4 |
| RB Leipzig | 1589 → 1595 | +6.0 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1594 → 1586 | -7.7 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 1516 → 1510 | -6.4 |
| SV 07 Elversberg | 1508 → 1502 | -6.0 |
Streaks ended and new records
Streaks of at least 5 matches that ended in this round, and streaks that became a new own record (the longest in our database for that team).
| Team | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln | conceding | 20 | ended |
| FC Augsburg | 3+ goals | 9 | ended |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | winless | 6 | ended |
| SC Paderborn 07 | conceding | 5 | ended |
| SV Werder Bremen | conceding | 14 | new own record old record: 13 |
| SV Werder Bremen | both teams score | 7 | new own record old record: 6 |
What the model said 1 of 4 hit · Brier 0.7718
Only estimates frozen within the last hour before each match; nothing recomputed afterwards. “Hit” = the most probable result was the real one. The round's Brier score: 0 = perfect, 0.6667 = random guessing. “Surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model (higher = more surprising).
| result | 1 / X / 2 | model's pick | surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart – M'gladbach | 2–3 | 64% / 20% / 17% | 1 · miss | 1.77 |
| Mainz – Bremen | 2–3 | 53% / 24% / 23% | 1 · miss | 1.46 |
| Augsburg – Union Berlin | 1–1 | 49% / 26% / 25% | 1 · miss | 1.34 |
| Dortmund – Frankfurt | 1–0 | 65% / 19% / 16% | 1 · hit | 0.43 |
How the chances moved
The difference between the simulator's chances before the round and after it: who gained and who lost the most for 1st place, the top 4 and the bottom 3.
1st place
| Team | before → after | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 2% → 3% | +1 pp |
| 1. FC Köln | 0% → 0% | 0 pp |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 0% → 0% | 0 pp |
| FC Bayern München | 98% → 97% | -1 pp |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1% → 1% | -0 pp |
| RB Leipzig | 0% → 0% | -0 pp |
top 4
| Team | before → after | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 91% → 94% | +3 pp |
| SC Freiburg | 17% → 19% | +3 pp |
| SV 07 Elversberg | 34% → 36% | +3 pp |
| VfB Stuttgart | 23% → 14% | -9 pp |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 8% → 5% | -3 pp |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 4% → 4% | -0 pp |
bottom 3
| Team | before → after | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | 35% → 47% | +12 pp |
| FC Schalke 04 | 13% → 18% | +5 pp |
| 1. FC Köln | 41% → 46% | +4 pp |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 74% → 59% | -15 pp |
| SV Werder Bremen | 19% → 11% | -8 pp |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 25% → 18% | -7 pp |
run before: 23 Oct 2026 06:05 · run after: 24 Oct 2026 20:17
Updated 25 Oct 2026 05:37