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Today

Today's matches, each with everything the site knows about it. Times are your device's.

22 matches · first at 11:30 UTC · 18 with the model estimate

The day's matches

Every match of the day in the leagues we follow, in your time zone, with the numbers the site already shows on each match's page: the model's estimate, what the result can change for the season, ongoing streaks, rest and the teams' radar. Nothing here recommends a result.

Biggest impact — the match where the result can move the two teams' season chances (title, top 4, relegation) the most, according to the season simulator. It measures the impact, not who wins.

14:00 UTC · Ligue 1

Monaco – Lille

Model estimate

40%Home≈ 1 in 2.52
28%Draw≈ 1 in 3.52
32%Away≈ 1 in 3.13

provisional, frozen in the last hour before kick-off

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 76 pp

  • Monaco · top 4: 54% now → 64% with a win, 52% with a draw, 44% with a defeat
  • Lille · top 4: 43% now → 54% with a win, 44% with a draw, 35% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Monaco: 5 conceding (team record 9)
  • Lille: 7 scoring (team record 10)

What stands out

  • Lille score: 9 of 10 in the team's last 10 matches (league 69%)
  • 2+ goals: 14 of 19 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 74%)
  • 1st half: 1+ goal: 14 of 19 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 71%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Monaco 6, Lille 3
  • matches in the last 7 days: Monaco 1, Lille 1
  • forecast: 17 °C, 0.0 mm, wind 5 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

MonacoLilleleague · n = 298

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

11:30 UTC · Serie A

Inter – Fiorentina

Model estimate

72%Home≈ 1 in 1.40
16%Draw≈ 1 in 6.07
12%Away≈ 1 in 8.38

provisional, frozen in the last hour before kick-off

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 23 pp

  • Inter · title: 76% now → 79% with a win, 71% with a draw, 66% with a defeat
  • Fiorentina · bottom 3: 6% now → 3% with a win, 5% with a draw, 7% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Inter: 17 scoring (team record 34)
  • Inter: 17 unbeaten (team record 28)
  • Inter: 5 3+ goals (team record 5)
  • Fiorentina: 8 conceding (team record 12)
  • Fiorentina: 5 both teams score (team record 7)
  • Fiorentina: 5 scoring (team record 9)
  • Fiorentina: 3 winless (team record 15)

What stands out

  • Inter score: 10 of 10 in the team's last 10 matches (league 71%)
  • 2+ goals: 18 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 74%)
  • 1st half: 1+ goal: 16 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 66%)
  • Draw or 3+ goals: 18 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 66%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Inter 3, Fiorentina 6
  • matches in the last 7 days: Inter 1, Fiorentina 1
  • forecast: 12 °C, 0.0 mm, wind 6 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

InterFiorentinaleague · n = 384

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

13:00 UTC · La Liga

Athletic – Getafe

Model estimate

44%Home≈ 1 in 2.29
36%Draw≈ 1 in 2.78
20%Away≈ 1 in 4.93

provisional, frozen in the last hour before kick-off

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 31 pp

  • Athletic · top 6: 12% now → 16% with a win, 10% with a draw, 8% with a defeat
  • Getafe · bottom 3: 25% now → 17% with a win, 24% with a draw, 29% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Athletic: 4 winless (team record 6)

Context

  • days since the last match: Athletic 3, Getafe 5
  • matches in the last 7 days: Athletic 1, Getafe 1
  • forecast: 20 °C, 0.0 mm, wind 9 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

AthleticGetafeleague · n = 382

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

14:00 UTC · Premier League

Liverpool – Brighton Hove

Model estimate

41%Home≈ 1 in 2.42
25%Draw≈ 1 in 3.92
33%Away≈ 1 in 3.02

provisional, frozen in the last hour before kick-off

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 52 pp

  • Liverpool · top 4: 47% now → 56% with a win, 45% with a draw, 39% with a defeat
  • Brighton Hove · top 4: 80% now → 88% with a win, 79% with a draw, 73% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Brighton Hove: 7 scoring (team record 16)
  • Brighton Hove: 5 unbeaten (team record 6)
  • Brighton Hove: 4 clean sheets (team record 4)
  • Brighton Hove: 4 wins in a row (team record 4)

What stands out

  • 2+ goals: 17 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 79%)
  • Draw or 3+ goals: 16 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 74%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Liverpool 4, Brighton Hove 7
  • matches in the last 7 days: Liverpool 1, Brighton Hove 0
  • forecast: 11 °C, 0.1 mm, wind 38 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

LiverpoolBrighton Hoveleague · n = 374

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

14:00 UTC · Premier League

Crystal Palace – Newcastle

Model estimate

34%Home≈ 1 in 2.92
27%Draw≈ 1 in 3.76
39%Away≈ 1 in 2.56

provisional, frozen in the last hour before kick-off

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 34 pp

  • Crystal Palace · bottom 3: 33% now → 25% with a win, 35% with a draw, 38% with a defeat
  • Newcastle · top 6: 10% now → 14% with a win, 9% with a draw, 6% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Newcastle: 5 conceding (team record 12)

What stands out

  • 2+ goals: 18 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 79%)
  • 1st half: 1+ goal: 17 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 70%)
  • Draw or 3+ goals: 16 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 74%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Crystal Palace 7, Newcastle 7
  • matches in the last 7 days: Crystal Palace 0, Newcastle 0
  • forecast: 13 °C, 0.0 mm, wind 34 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

Crystal PalaceNewcastleleague · n = 374

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

14:00 UTC · Premier League

Man United – Bournemouth

Model estimate

45%Home≈ 1 in 2.20
26%Draw≈ 1 in 3.86
29%Away≈ 1 in 3.49

provisional, frozen in the last hour before kick-off

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 40 pp

  • Man United · top 6: 23% now → 28% with a win, 21% with a draw, 16% with a defeat
  • Bournemouth · top 6: 12% now → 18% with a win, 11% with a draw, 9% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Man United: 7 conceding (team record 10)
  • Man United: 5 winless (team record 8)
  • Man United: 3 both teams score (team record 6)
  • Man United: 3 scoring (team record 23)
  • Man United: 3 unbeaten (team record 11)

What stands out

  • Bournemouth score: 9 of 10 in the team's last 10 matches (league 73%)
  • 2+ goals: 16 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 79%)
  • Draw or 3+ goals: 15 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 74%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Man United 3, Bournemouth 7
  • matches in the last 7 days: Man United 1, Bournemouth 0
  • forecast: 11 °C, 0.1 mm, wind 34 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

Man UnitedBournemouthleague · n = 374

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

14:00 UTC · Premier League

Hull City – Brentford

No estimate yet: a team has too few matches in the model window or the match is too far away.

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 47 pp

  • Hull City · top 6: 20% now → 26% with a win, 17% with a draw, 13% with a defeat
  • Brentford · top 6: 40% now → 48% with a win, 39% with a draw, 33% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Hull City: 5 winless (team record 5)
  • Hull City: 4 conceding (team record 4)
  • Brentford: 9 scoring (team record 13)
  • Brentford: 4 3+ goals (team record 6)

What stands out

  • Brentford score: 9 of 10 in the team's last 10 matches (league 73%)
  • 2+ goals: 14 of 17 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 79%)
  • Draw or 3+ goals: 14 of 17 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 74%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Hull City 8, Brentford 8
  • matches in the last 7 days: Hull City 0, Brentford 0
  • forecast: 12 °C, 0.0 mm, wind 37 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

Hull CityBrentfordleague · n = 374

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

radar: not enough data for Hull City

14:00 UTC · Serie A

Atalanta – Frosinone

No estimate yet: a team has too few matches in the model window or the match is too far away.

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 57 pp

  • Atalanta · top 6: 40% now → 48% with a win, 38% with a draw, 30% with a defeat
  • Frosinone · top 6: 41% now → 50% with a win, 41% with a draw, 35% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Atalanta: 5 conceding (team record 7)

What stands out

  • 2+ goals: 14 of 17 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 74%)
  • 1st half: 1+ goal: 14 of 17 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 66%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Atalanta 6, Frosinone 8
  • matches in the last 7 days: Atalanta 1, Frosinone 0
  • forecast: 14 °C, 0.0 mm, wind 7 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

AtalantaFrosinoneleague · n = 382

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

radar: not enough data for Frosinone

14:00 UTC · Serie A

Genoa – Venezia FC

Model estimate

48%Home≈ 1 in 2.09
28%Draw≈ 1 in 3.55
24%Away≈ 1 in 4.16

provisional, frozen in the last hour before kick-off

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 33 pp

  • Genoa · bottom 3: 20% now → 15% with a win, 22% with a draw, 27% with a defeat
  • Venezia FC · bottom 3: 77% now → 67% with a win, 76% with a draw, 82% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Genoa: 9 conceding (team record 12)

What stands out

  • 2+ goals: 13 of 17 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 74%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Genoa 7, Venezia FC 8
  • matches in the last 7 days: Genoa 0, Venezia FC 0
  • forecast: 18 °C, 0.0 mm, wind 12 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

GenoaVenezia FCleague · n = 382

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

radar: not enough data for Venezia FC

14:30 UTC · Bundesliga

Hoffenheim – Leverkusen

Model estimate

29%Home≈ 1 in 3.48
22%Draw≈ 1 in 4.60
50%Away≈ 1 in 2.02

provisional, frozen in the last hour before kick-off

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 34 pp

  • Hoffenheim · bottom 3: 15% now → 10% with a win, 15% with a draw, 18% with a defeat
  • Leverkusen · top 4: 85% now → 88% with a win, 84% with a draw, 78% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Hoffenheim: 7 conceding (team record 27)
  • Hoffenheim: 7 3+ goals (team record 9)
  • Hoffenheim: 6 both teams score (team record 11)
  • Hoffenheim: 6 scoring (team record 16)
  • Leverkusen: 18 scoring (team record 23)
  • Leverkusen: 5 unbeaten (team record 35)
  • Leverkusen: 3 wins in a row (team record 10)

What stands out

  • Hoffenheim score: 9 of 10 in the team's last 10 matches (league 84%)
  • Leverkusen score: 10 of 10 in the team's last 10 matches (league 74%)
  • 2+ goals: 19 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 83%)
  • 3+ goals: 17 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 65%)
  • both teams score: 16 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 62%)
  • 1st half: 1+ goal: 19 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 76%)
  • Draw or 3+ goals: 18 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 80%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Hoffenheim 6, Leverkusen 7
  • matches in the last 7 days: Hoffenheim 1, Leverkusen 0
  • forecast: 13 °C, 0.0 mm, wind 15 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

HoffenheimLeverkusenleague · n = 298

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

15:15 UTC · La Liga

Celta – Real Betis

Model estimate

42%Home≈ 1 in 2.37
27%Draw≈ 1 in 3.73
31%Away≈ 1 in 3.24

provisional, frozen in the last hour before kick-off

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 41 pp

  • Celta · top 6: 20% now → 26% with a win, 18% with a draw, 15% with a defeat
  • Real Betis · top 4: 63% now → 72% with a win, 64% with a draw, 56% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Celta: 6 unbeaten (team record 8)
  • Real Betis: 17 scoring (team record 28)
  • Real Betis: 3 both teams score (team record 12)
  • Real Betis: 3 conceding (team record 12)

What stands out

  • Real Betis score: 10 of 10 in the team's last 10 matches (league 70%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Celta 7, Real Betis 3
  • matches in the last 7 days: Celta 0, Real Betis 1
  • forecast: 19 °C, 0.0 mm, wind 9 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

CeltaReal Betisleague · n = 381

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

16:15 UTC · Ligue 1

Toulouse – Troyes

No estimate yet: a team has too few matches in the model window or the match is too far away.

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 33 pp

  • Toulouse · top 6: 14% now → 17% with a win, 10% with a draw, 7% with a defeat
  • Troyes · bottom 3: 89% now → 81% with a win, 88% with a draw, 91% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Toulouse: 4 3+ goals (team record 6)
  • Toulouse: 4 scoring (team record 7)
  • Toulouse: 4 unbeaten (team record 6)
  • Troyes: 6 conceding (team record 6)
  • Troyes: 5 winless (team record 5)

What stands out

  • 2+ goals: 14 of 17 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 74%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Toulouse 8, Troyes 7
  • matches in the last 7 days: Toulouse 0, Troyes 0
  • forecast: 18 °C, 0.0 mm, wind 19 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

ToulouseTroyesleague · n = 297

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

radar: not enough data for Troyes

16:15 UTC · Ligue 1

Marseille – Le Havre

Model estimate

68%Home≈ 1 in 1.47
20%Draw≈ 1 in 5.13
13%Away≈ 1 in 7.96

provisional, frozen in the last hour before kick-off

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 47 pp

  • Marseille · top 6: 53% now → 57% with a win, 46% with a draw, 40% with a defeat
  • Le Havre · bottom 3: 82% now → 72% with a win, 80% with a draw, 84% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Marseille: 3 scoring (team record 11)
  • Le Havre: 7 winless (team record 11)
  • Le Havre: 3 conceding (team record 15)

What stands out

  • 2+ goals: 14 of 19 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 74%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Marseille 7, Le Havre 7
  • matches in the last 7 days: Marseille 0, Le Havre 0
  • forecast: 19 °C, 0.0 mm, wind 19 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

MarseilleLe Havreleague · n = 297

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

16:15 UTC · Ligue 1

Stade Rennais – Strasbourg

Model estimate

48%Home≈ 1 in 2.08
21%Draw≈ 1 in 4.75
31%Away≈ 1 in 3.25

provisional, frozen in the last hour before kick-off

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 51 pp

  • Stade Rennais · top 6: 46% now → 54% with a win, 41% with a draw, 36% with a defeat
  • Strasbourg · top 6: 18% now → 25% with a win, 17% with a draw, 14% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Stade Rennais: 3 conceding (team record 9)
  • Stade Rennais: 3 3+ goals (team record 10)
  • Strasbourg: 15 conceding (team record 15)
  • Strasbourg: 6 both teams score (team record 11)
  • Strasbourg: 6 scoring (team record 16)
  • Strasbourg: 4 winless (team record 8)
  • Strasbourg: 3 3+ goals (team record 7)

What stands out

  • Stade Rennais score: 9 of 10 in the team's last 10 matches (league 76%)
  • Strasbourg score: 9 of 10 in the team's last 10 matches (league 69%)
  • 2+ goals: 19 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 74%)
  • 3+ goals: 17 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 55%)
  • both teams score: 17 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 53%)
  • 1st half: 1+ goal: 16 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 71%)
  • Draw or 3+ goals: 19 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 72%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Stade Rennais 7, Strasbourg 8
  • matches in the last 7 days: Stade Rennais 0, Strasbourg 0
  • forecast: 14 °C, 0.0 mm, wind 18 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

Stade RennaisStrasbourgleague · n = 297

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

16:15 UTC · Ligue 1

Angers SCO – Lorient

Model estimate

25%Home≈ 1 in 4.05
29%Draw≈ 1 in 3.44
46%Away≈ 1 in 2.16

provisional, frozen in the last hour before kick-off

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 34 pp

  • Angers SCO · bottom 3: 75% now → 65% with a win, 75% with a draw, 80% with a defeat
  • Lorient · top 6: 16% now → 20% with a win, 14% with a draw, 11% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Angers SCO: 3 scoring (team record 9)
  • Lorient: 6 scoring (team record 6)

What stands out

  • 2+ goals: 15 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 74%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Angers SCO 7, Lorient 7
  • matches in the last 7 days: Angers SCO 0, Lorient 0
  • forecast: 15 °C, 0.0 mm, wind 15 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

Angers SCOLorientleague · n = 297

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

16:15 UTC · Ligue 1

Auxerre – Le Mans

No estimate yet: a team has too few matches in the model window or the match is too far away.

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 35 pp

  • Auxerre · bottom 3: 13% now → 8% with a win, 13% with a draw, 19% with a defeat
  • Le Mans · bottom 3: 20% now → 13% with a win, 20% with a draw, 25% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Auxerre: 12 scoring (team record 12)
  • Auxerre: 3 both teams score (team record 4)
  • Auxerre: 3 conceding (team record 7)
  • Auxerre: 3 3+ goals (team record 9)
  • Le Mans: 7 conceding (team record 7)
  • Le Mans: 4 3+ goals (team record 4)

What stands out

  • Auxerre score: 10 of 10 in the team's last 10 matches (league 76%)
  • 2+ goals: 16 of 17 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 74%)
  • 3+ goals: 14 of 17 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 55%)
  • both teams score: 14 of 17 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 53%)
  • 1st half: 1+ goal: 15 of 17 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 71%)
  • Draw or 3+ goals: 15 of 17 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 72%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Auxerre 7, Le Mans 8
  • matches in the last 7 days: Auxerre 0, Le Mans 0
  • forecast: 14 °C, 0.0 mm, wind 17 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

AuxerreLe Mansleague · n = 297

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

radar: not enough data for Le Mans

16:30 UTC · Premier League

Sunderland – Leeds United

Model estimate

31%Home≈ 1 in 3.21
31%Draw≈ 1 in 3.22
38%Away≈ 1 in 2.64

provisional, frozen in the last hour before kick-off

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 37 pp

  • Sunderland · bottom 3: 44% now → 35% with a win, 44% with a draw, 50% with a defeat
  • Leeds United · top 6: 23% now → 30% with a win, 21% with a draw, 18% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Sunderland: 5 conceding (team record 7)
  • Sunderland: 5 winless (team record 5)
  • Leeds United: 3 winless (team record 6)

What stands out

  • 2+ goals: 15 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 79%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Sunderland 7, Leeds United 7
  • matches in the last 7 days: Sunderland 0, Leeds United 0
  • forecast: 10 °C, 0.0 mm, wind 37 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

SunderlandLeeds Unitedleague · n = 372

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

16:30 UTC · Bundesliga

Freiburg – Bayern

Model estimate

12%Home≈ 1 in 8.14
16%Draw≈ 1 in 6.45
72%Away≈ 1 in 1.38

provisional, frozen in the last hour before kick-off

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 31 pp

  • Freiburg · top 6: 55% now → 67% with a win, 56% with a draw, 53% with a defeat
  • Bayern · title: 97% now → 98% with a win, 96% with a draw, 94% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Freiburg: 9 scoring (team record 14)
  • Freiburg: 4 3+ goals (team record 11)
  • Freiburg: 3 both teams score (team record 6)
  • Freiburg: 3 conceding (team record 9)
  • Bayern: 21 unbeaten (team record 27)
  • Bayern: 4 3+ goals (team record 26)
  • Bayern: 4 scoring (team record 47)

What stands out

  • Freiburg score: 9 of 10 in the team's last 10 matches (league 84%)
  • Bayern score: 9 of 10 in the team's last 10 matches (league 74%)
  • 2+ goals: 17 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 83%)
  • 3+ goals: 16 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 65%)
  • 1st half: 1+ goal: 17 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 76%)
  • Draw or 3+ goals: 18 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 80%)
  • Draw or 4+ goals: 15 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 60%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Freiburg 7, Bayern 3
  • matches in the last 7 days: Freiburg 0, Bayern 1
  • forecast: 13 °C, 0.0 mm, wind 11 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

FreiburgBayernleague · n = 298

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

17:00 UTC · Serie A

Lecce – Juventus

Model estimate

14%Home≈ 1 in 7.10
25%Draw≈ 1 in 4.01
61%Away≈ 1 in 1.64

provisional, frozen in the last hour before kick-off

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 46 pp

  • Lecce · bottom 3: 37% now → 26% with a win, 34% with a draw, 40% with a defeat
  • Juventus · top 6: 55% now → 60% with a win, 50% with a draw, 43% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Lecce: 4 3+ goals (team record 4)

What stands out

  • 2+ goals: 15 of 19 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 74%)
  • 1st half: 1+ goal: 15 of 19 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 66%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Lecce 7, Juventus 6
  • matches in the last 7 days: Lecce 0, Juventus 1
  • forecast: 16 °C, 0.0 mm, wind 16 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

LecceJuventusleague · n = 381

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

17:30 UTC · La Liga

Real Sociedad – Levante

Model estimate

54%Home≈ 1 in 1.85
21%Draw≈ 1 in 4.72
25%Away≈ 1 in 4.05

provisional, frozen in the last hour before kick-off

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 37 pp

  • Real Sociedad · top 6: 48% now → 54% with a win, 43% with a draw, 39% with a defeat
  • Levante · top 6: 8% now → 13% with a win, 9% with a draw, 5% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Real Sociedad: 5 conceding (team record 19)
  • Real Sociedad: 5 3+ goals (team record 6)
  • Real Sociedad: 3 both teams score (team record 10)
  • Real Sociedad: 3 scoring (team record 16)
  • Real Sociedad: 3 unbeaten (team record 7)
  • Real Sociedad: 3 wins in a row (team record 3)
  • Levante: 5 both teams score (team record 5)
  • Levante: 5 conceding (team record 8)
  • Levante: 5 scoring (team record 5)
  • Levante: 3 unbeaten (team record 4)

What stands out

  • 2+ goals: 16 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 77%)
  • Draw or 3+ goals: 19 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 72%)
  • Draw or 4+ goals: 15 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 49%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Real Sociedad 7, Levante 3
  • matches in the last 7 days: Real Sociedad 0, Levante 1
  • forecast: 17 °C, 1.2 mm, wind 12 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

Real SociedadLevanteleague · n = 380

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

19:45 UTC · Serie A

Udinese – Milan

Model estimate

22%Home≈ 1 in 4.50
25%Draw≈ 1 in 4.00
53%Away≈ 1 in 1.89

provisional, frozen in the last hour before kick-off

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 45 pp

  • Udinese · bottom 3: 21% now → 15% with a win, 20% with a draw, 25% with a defeat
  • Milan · top 6: 64% now → 70% with a win, 59% with a draw, 54% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Udinese: 9 conceding (team record 11)
  • Udinese: 5 winless (team record 10)
  • Milan: 10 scoring (team record 22)
  • Milan: 7 unbeaten (team record 24)

What stands out

  • Milan score: 10 of 10 in the team's last 10 matches (league 69%)
  • 2+ goals: 17 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 74%)
  • Draw or 3+ goals: 15 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 66%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Udinese 7, Milan 7
  • matches in the last 7 days: Udinese 0, Milan 0
  • forecast: 9 °C, 0.0 mm, wind 4 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

UdineseMilanleague · n = 380

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

20:00 UTC · La Liga

Barça – Real Madrid

Model estimate

60%Home≈ 1 in 1.65
20%Draw≈ 1 in 5.03
20%Away≈ 1 in 5.08

provisional, frozen in the last hour before kick-off

Details: what the result can change, streaks, context, radar

What the result can change

how far both teams' chances can move in total: 14 pp

  • Barça · title: 95% now → 97% with a win, 94% with a draw, 90% with a defeat
  • Real Madrid · title: 4% now → 8% with a win, 4% with a draw, 2% with a defeat

Ongoing streaks

  • Barça: 11 scoring (team record 55)
  • Barça: 9 unbeaten (team record 17)
  • Barça: 9 wins in a row (team record 11)
  • Barça: 7 3+ goals (team record 13)
  • Real Madrid: 5 scoring (team record 27)

What stands out

  • Barça score: 10 of 10 in the team's last 10 matches (league 81%)
  • Real Madrid score: 9 of 10 in the team's last 10 matches (league 70%)
  • 2+ goals: 18 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 77%)
  • 3+ goals: 17 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 52%)
  • 1st half: 1+ goal: 16 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 68%)
  • 1st half: 2+ goals: 15 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 34%)
  • Draw or 3+ goals: 17 of 20 in the two teams' last 10 matches (league 72%)

Context

  • days since the last match: Barça 5, Real Madrid 4
  • matches in the last 7 days: Barça 1, Real Madrid 1
  • forecast: 16 °C, 0.0 mm, wind 5 km/h (weather effect, measured: no visible effect)

The teams' radar (last 20 matches)

BarçaReal Madridleague · n = 379

WinsScores3+ goalsBoth scoreConcedesLeads athalf-time

Updated: Sunday, 25 Oct, 07:21 UTC