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Premier League · Matchday 5

2026-27 · 18 Sep 2026 – 20 Sep 2026 ← matchday 4 matchday 6 →

Round on radar: all leagues, before and after

Results 10 played

Every match of the round with the final score. Matches not yet played are shown as postponed.

The round in numbers

The round's figures against the season average before it: goals per match, how often both teams scored, how often there were at least 3 goals, and how results split between home wins, draws and away wins.

27goals2.70 per match · season before this round: 2.85
40.0%both teams scoredseason before this round: 52.5%
50.0%3+ goalsseason before this round: 52.5%
5 / 2 / 3home / draw / away

Table moves

How the table changed: each team's position before and after the round. At the top, the biggest climbs and drops.

Teambefore → afterpts
Brentford FC7 → 4+39
Newcastle United FC12 → 9+38
Aston Villa FC19 → 16+34
Hull City AFC4 → 8-48
Chelsea FC6 → 10-47
Tottenham Hotspur FC17 → 20-32

Elo moves

The Elo rating before and after the round. It rises when a team gets more from a match than expected and falls when it gets less; beating a strong opponent moves it more than beating a weak one.

Teambefore → afterΔ
Brighton & Hove Albion FC1550 → 1561+11.6
Brentford FC1529 → 1537+8.2
Coventry City FC1479 → 1485+6.2
Arsenal FC1716 → 1705-11.6
Chelsea FC1558 → 1550-8.2
Nottingham Forest FC1514 → 1508-6.2

Streaks ended and new records

Streaks of at least 5 matches that ended in this round, and streaks that became a new own record (the longest in our database for that team).

Team
Arsenal FCscoring20ended
AFC Bournemouthscoring12ended
Crystal Palace FCconceding10ended
Arsenal FCunbeaten9ended
Arsenal FCwins in a row9ended
Chelsea FCscoring8ended
Chelsea FCboth teams score8ended
AFC Bournemouthboth teams score6ended
Manchester City FCscoring21new own record old record: 20
Chelsea FCconceding21new own record old record: 20
Brentford FCunbeaten7new own record old record: 6
Fulham FCwinless5new own record old record: 4

What the model said

Only estimates frozen within the last hour before each match; nothing recomputed afterwards. “Hit” = the most probable result was the real one. The round's Brier score: 0 = perfect, 0.6667 = random guessing. “Surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model (higher = more surprising).

No estimate was frozen before the matches of this round. The model was published on 24 Sep 2026; estimates are frozen within the last hour before each match, starting with the first round after publication.

How the chances moved

The difference between the simulator's chances before the round and after it: who gained and who lost the most for 1st place, the top 4 and the bottom 3.

No simulator run before this round; the comparison appears from the first round with a run before and one after.

Updated 25 Oct 2026 06:37