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Premier League · Matchday 3

2026-27 · 4 Sep 2026 – 6 Sep 2026 ← matchday 2 matchday 4 →

Round on radar: all leagues, before and after

Results 10 played

Every match of the round with the final score. Matches not yet played are shown as postponed.

The round in numbers

The round's figures against the season average before it: goals per match, how often both teams scored, how often there were at least 3 goals, and how results split between home wins, draws and away wins.

23goals2.30 per match · season before this round: 3.10
60.0%both teams scoredseason before this round: 50.0%
40.0%3+ goalsseason before this round: 55.0%
2 / 6 / 2home / draw / away

Table moves

How the table changed: each team's position before and after the round. At the top, the biggest climbs and drops.

Teambefore → afterpts
Liverpool FC13 → 6+75
Crystal Palace FC18 → 13+53
Aston Villa FC19 → 17+21
Fulham FC16 → 19-30
Coventry City FC17 → 20-30
Nottingham Forest FC14 → 16-22

Elo moves

The Elo rating before and after the round. It rises when a team gets more from a match than expected and falls when it gets less; beating a strong opponent moves it more than beating a weak one.

Teambefore → afterΔ
Crystal Palace FC1492 → 1498+5.8
Liverpool FC1623 → 1627+4.0
Arsenal FC1710 → 1712+2.4
Fulham FC1497 → 1492-5.8
Ipswich Town FC1400 → 1396-4.0
Chelsea FC1561 → 1559-2.4

Streaks ended and new records

Streaks of at least 5 matches that ended in this round, and streaks that became a new own record (the longest in our database for that team).

Team
Crystal Palace FCwinless9ended
Aston Villa FCconceding9ended
Liverpool FCconceding8ended
Liverpool FCboth teams score8ended
Liverpool FCwinless6ended
Nottingham Forest FCconceding6ended
Arsenal FCscoring19new own record old record: 18
Chelsea FCconceding19new own record old record: 18
Sunderland AFCscoring5new own record old record: 4

What the model said

Only estimates frozen within the last hour before each match; nothing recomputed afterwards. “Hit” = the most probable result was the real one. The round's Brier score: 0 = perfect, 0.6667 = random guessing. “Surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model (higher = more surprising).

No estimate was frozen before the matches of this round. The model was published on 24 Sep 2026; estimates are frozen within the last hour before each match, starting with the first round after publication.

How the chances moved

The difference between the simulator's chances before the round and after it: who gained and who lost the most for 1st place, the top 4 and the bottom 3.

No simulator run before this round; the comparison appears from the first round with a run before and one after.

Updated 25 Oct 2026 06:37