RadarFooty BackAccountRO

Bundesliga · Season simulator

Estimate based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 245 matches, using the model's current team strengths. It does not account for transfers or future injuries.

2026-27 run 25 Oct 2026 07:17 · seed 1792912621

Each row is a team. We played out all remaining matches on a computer 10,000 times, with the model's current strengths; the percentages say in how many of those 10,000 simulated seasons the team finished 1st, in the top 4 and so on. “Expected pts” = average final points, “Mean pos.” = average final place.

TeamPts nowExp. ptsAvg. pos1stTop 4Top 616thBottom 3Finishing position distribution
FC Bayern München1483.01.097%≈ 1 in 1.03100%≈ 1 in 1.00100%≈ 1 in 1.000%0%
Borussia Dortmund1766.42.62%≈ 1 in 43.2995%≈ 1 in 1.0699%≈ 1 in 1.010%0%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen1362.23.31%≈ 1 in 13985%≈ 1 in 1.1896%≈ 1 in 1.040%0%
RB Leipzig1256.64.7<1%58%≈ 1 in 1.7185%≈ 1 in 1.18<1%<1%
SC Freiburg1350.86.8<1%21%≈ 1 in 4.7755%≈ 1 in 1.82<1%1%≈ 1 in 128
VfB Stuttgart649.47.40%16%≈ 1 in 6.2346%≈ 1 in 2.151%≈ 1 in 1221%≈ 1 in 68.49
SV 07 Elversberg (s)1047.28.50%9%≈ 1 in 11.6032%≈ 1 in 3.161%≈ 1 in 67.113%≈ 1 in 34.97
1. FSV Mainz 051045.59.20%6%≈ 1 in 17.6124%≈ 1 in 4.212%≈ 1 in 47.854%≈ 1 in 23.92
Eintracht Frankfurt844.79.80%4%≈ 1 in 23.0919%≈ 1 in 5.193%≈ 1 in 33.566%≈ 1 in 16.92
SV Werder Bremen1242.710.80%2%≈ 1 in 48.0812%≈ 1 in 8.275%≈ 1 in 20.0810%≈ 1 in 9.76
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim641.211.40%2%≈ 1 in 62.899%≈ 1 in 10.587%≈ 1 in 14.6815%≈ 1 in 6.53
FC Augsburg940.511.70%1%≈ 1 in 77.528%≈ 1 in 13.238%≈ 1 in 13.2617%≈ 1 in 5.97
SC Paderborn 07 (s)840.112.00%1%≈ 1 in 1126%≈ 1 in 16.988%≈ 1 in 13.1218%≈ 1 in 5.62
FC Schalke 04 (s)639.412.40%1%≈ 1 in 1725%≈ 1 in 20.929%≈ 1 in 11.5220%≈ 1 in 4.93
Hamburger SV935.814.40%<1%1%≈ 1 in 72.9914%≈ 1 in 7.0744%≈ 1 in 2.25
1. FC Köln835.514.40%<1%1%≈ 1 in 81.9714%≈ 1 in 7.0843%≈ 1 in 2.30
1. FC Union Berlin633.515.30%<1%1%≈ 1 in 15614%≈ 1 in 7.0458%≈ 1 in 1.74
Borussia Mönchengladbach333.215.40%<1%1%≈ 1 in 19214%≈ 1 in 7.1159%≈ 1 in 1.70

(s) = short history: fewer than 8 matches in the model window, strengths shrunk toward the league average. Ties inside a simulation are broken by points, goal difference, goals scored, then at random. How good is the model?

European places 2027/28 run 25 Oct 2026 07:17

Which place in next season's European competitions the final league position gives, according to UEFA's access list (still provisional). The percentage says in how many of the 10,000 simulated seasons the team finished in a position that gives that place; “any European competition” adds them up. Two routes we cannot know yet are left out: the national cup winner (if it has already qualified through the league, its place passes to the next team in the table) and the two extra Champions League places for the two best countries in the current European season (EPS). Where the Champions League places are simply the top of the table, the column matches the one in the table above.

TeamChampions Leagueleague phase · places 1–4Europa Leagueleague phase · 5th placeConference Leagueplay-off · 6th placeAny European competition
Bayern100%≈ 1 in 1.000%0%100%≈ 1 in 1.00
Dortmund95%≈ 1 in 1.064%≈ 1 in 28.571%≈ 1 in 92.5999%≈ 1 in 1.01
Leverkusen85%≈ 1 in 1.188%≈ 1 in 12.534%≈ 1 in 26.6796%≈ 1 in 1.04
RB Leipzig58%≈ 1 in 1.7117%≈ 1 in 6.0410%≈ 1 in 10.1085%≈ 1 in 1.18
Freiburg21%≈ 1 in 4.7718%≈ 1 in 5.5716%≈ 1 in 6.2255%≈ 1 in 1.82
Stuttgart16%≈ 1 in 6.2316%≈ 1 in 6.3014%≈ 1 in 6.9046%≈ 1 in 2.15
Elversberg9%≈ 1 in 11.6010%≈ 1 in 9.7813%≈ 1 in 7.8132%≈ 1 in 3.16
Mainz6%≈ 1 in 17.618%≈ 1 in 13.0510%≈ 1 in 9.5824%≈ 1 in 4.21
Frankfurt4%≈ 1 in 23.096%≈ 1 in 15.388%≈ 1 in 11.8619%≈ 1 in 5.19
Bremen2%≈ 1 in 48.084%≈ 1 in 25.586%≈ 1 in 16.3912%≈ 1 in 8.27
Hoffenheim2%≈ 1 in 62.893%≈ 1 in 31.655%≈ 1 in 21.289%≈ 1 in 10.58
Augsburg1%≈ 1 in 77.523%≈ 1 in 39.374%≈ 1 in 26.818%≈ 1 in 13.23
SC Paderborn1%≈ 1 in 1122%≈ 1 in 54.953%≈ 1 in 31.456%≈ 1 in 16.98
Schalke1%≈ 1 in 1721%≈ 1 in 75.193%≈ 1 in 34.845%≈ 1 in 20.92
HSV<1%<1%1%≈ 1 in 1141%≈ 1 in 72.99
1. FC Köln<1%<1%1%≈ 1 in 1281%≈ 1 in 81.97
Union Berlin<1%<1%<1%1%≈ 1 in 156
M'gladbach<1%<1%<1%1%≈ 1 in 192

Source: UEFA circular letter No 54/2026 of 9 Sep 2026, access list for the 2027/28 season — provisional; the final version comes before the end of the current European season. The association is ranked 4th in UEFA's country coefficients (five-season association coefficients at the end of the 2025/26 season, i.e. 2021/22–2025/26). The national cup winner gets a place in the Europa League (league phase); if it has already qualified through the league, its place passes to the next team in the table (Europa League regulations, Article 3). Not included: the two extra Champions League places (EPS) for the two best countries in the current European season, known only at its end.

What the next matches change 25 Oct 2026 – 1 Nov 2026 · n = 11

What changes with the result: for every match in the coming days, each team's chances (of 1st place, the top 4 or 6, the bottom 3) if the match ends 1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win, next to “now”. The figures come from the same 10,000 simulations, split by that match's result; we show the target the result matters most for. “Impact” = by how many percentage points the two teams' chances can move in total; matches are ordered by it.

MatchTeamTargetnowif 1if Xif 2
Augsburg – Freiburg31 Oct 2026 14:30 · impact 54 ppAugsburgbottom 317%10%19%22%
Freiburgtop 655%48%53%63%
Schalke – RB Leipzig31 Oct 2026 14:30 · impact 48 ppSchalkebottom 320%13%21%26%
RB Leipzigtop 458%50%57%66%
Elversberg – Mainz30 Oct 2026 19:30 · impact 47 ppElversbergtop 632%39%29%24%
Mainztop 624%18%23%32%
Frankfurt – HSV1 Nov 2026 16:30 · impact 47 ppFrankfurttop 619%23%15%12%
HSVbottom 344%49%44%32%
M'gladbach – SC Paderborn31 Oct 2026 14:30 · impact 44 ppM'gladbachbottom 359%49%62%67%
SC Paderbornbottom 318%24%18%11%
Leverkusen – Stuttgart31 Oct 2026 14:30 · impact 44 ppLeverkusentop 485%89%83%78%
Stuttgarttop 646%41%48%57%
Union Berlin – 1. FC Köln1 Nov 2026 14:30 · impact 43 ppUnion Berlinbottom 358%48%61%67%
1. FC Kölnbottom 343%52%44%33%
Bremen – Hoffenheim31 Oct 2026 14:30 · impact 42 ppBrementop 612%16%11%8%
Hoffenheimbottom 315%20%16%10%
Hoffenheim – Leverkusen25 Oct 2026 14:30 · impact 34 ppHoffenheimbottom 315%10%15%18%
Leverkusentop 485%78%84%88%
Freiburg – Bayern25 Oct 2026 16:30 · impact 31 ppFreiburgtop 655%67%56%53%
Bayern1st place97%94%96%98%
Bayern – Dortmund31 Oct 2026 17:30 · impact 17 ppBayern1st place97%98%96%92%
Dortmund1st place2%1%3%6%

The round in scenarios

You choose the results of the coming matches (1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win), or choose nothing. The table shows the standings on points if that happens (goal difference stays as it is now, since there are no scores) and, out of the 10,000 simulations, only those in which your scenario occurred: in how many each team finished 1st, in the top 4 or 6, in the bottom 3. Nothing is pre-selected and nothing is a recommendation.

…

How the chances moved n = 8

Title chances of the top 6 teams at the latest runs. Runs happen daily, not only after rounds: between two runs with the same matches played, differences of 1–2 pp are simulation noise, not the effect of results.

runMatches playedBayernDortmundLeverkusenRB LeipzigFreiburgStuttgart
25 Oct 2026 07:176197%2%1%<1%<1%0%
25 Oct 2026 06:176197%3%1%<1%0%<1%
25 Oct 2026 06:056197%2%1%<1%<1%<1%
25 Oct 2026 05:176197%2%1%<1%<1%<1%
25 Oct 2026 04:176197%3%1%<1%<1%0%
25 Oct 2026 03:176197%3%1%<1%0%0%
25 Oct 2026 02:176197%3%1%<1%<1%0%
25 Oct 2026 01:176197%2%1%<1%0%0%

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:17