Serie A · Season simulator

Estimate based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 305 matches, using the model's current team strengths. It does not account for transfers or future injuries.

2026-27 run 25 Oct 2026 07:17 · seed 1792912621

Each row is a team. We played out all remaining matches on a computer 10,000 times, with the model's current strengths; the percentages say in how many of those 10,000 simulated seasons the team finished 1st, in the top 4 and so on. “Expected pts” = average final points, “Mean pos.” = average final place.

Team	Pts now	Exp. pts	Avg. pos	1st	Top 4	Top 6	Bottom 3
FC Internazionale Milano	19	84.5	1.4	76%≈ 1 in 1.31	99%≈ 1 in 1.01	100%≈ 1 in 1.00	0%
AS Roma	18	75.9	2.8	15%≈ 1 in 6.59	86%≈ 1 in 1.16	96%≈ 1 in 1.04	0%
Como 1907	17	69.3	4.7	3%≈ 1 in 31.45	53%≈ 1 in 1.89	78%≈ 1 in 1.28	0%
AC Milan	15	66.4	5.6	1%≈ 1 in 74.07	37%≈ 1 in 2.74	64%≈ 1 in 1.57	0%
SS Lazio	22	66.1	5.8	1%≈ 1 in 81.97	32%≈ 1 in 3.14	61%≈ 1 in 1.65	0%
SSC Napoli	11	65.5	5.9	1%≈ 1 in 103	31%≈ 1 in 3.27	60%≈ 1 in 1.67	0%
Juventus FC	11	64.9	6.1	1%≈ 1 in 139	28%≈ 1 in 3.62	55%≈ 1 in 1.81	0%
Frosinone Calcio (s)	13	62.5	6.9	1%≈ 1 in 175	17%≈ 1 in 5.74	41%≈ 1 in 2.44	<1%
Atalanta BC	9	62.4	7.0	<1%	17%≈ 1 in 5.79	40%≈ 1 in 2.47	0%
Bologna FC 1909	8	50.3	11.0	0%	1%≈ 1 in 169	3%≈ 1 in 33.56	1%≈ 1 in 145
US Sassuolo Calcio	8	46.0	12.6	0%	<1%	1%≈ 1 in 164	3%≈ 1 in 33.00
Torino FC	13	46.5	12.4	0%	<1%	1%≈ 1 in 159	2%≈ 1 in 48.31
ACF Fiorentina	4	43.8	13.3	0%	<1%	<1%	6%≈ 1 in 16.81
Cagliari Calcio	13	44.6	13.2	0%	<1%	<1%	4%≈ 1 in 23.47
Genoa CFC	4	38.5	15.3	0%	0%	<1%	20%≈ 1 in 4.98
Udinese Calcio	4	38.3	15.3	0%	0%	<1%	21%≈ 1 in 4.69
US Lecce	9	35.4	16.5	0%	0%	0%	37%≈ 1 in 2.73
Parma Calcio 1913	4	32.6	17.4	0%	0%	0%	54%≈ 1 in 1.84
AC Monza	7	29.6	18.4	0%	0%	0%	75%≈ 1 in 1.34
Venezia FC	3	28.9	18.5	0%	0%	0%	77%≈ 1 in 1.30

(s) = short history: fewer than 8 matches in the model window, strengths shrunk toward the league average. Ties inside a simulation are broken by points, goal difference, goals scored, then at random. How good is the model?

European places 2027/28 run 25 Oct 2026 07:17

Which place in next season's European competitions the final league position gives, according to UEFA's access list (still provisional). The percentage says in how many of the 10,000 simulated seasons the team finished in a position that gives that place; “any European competition” adds them up. Two routes we cannot know yet are left out: the national cup winner (if it has already qualified through the league, its place passes to the next team in the table) and the two extra Champions League places for the two best countries in the current European season (EPS). Where the Champions League places are simply the top of the table, the column matches the one in the table above.

Team	Champions Leagueleague phase · places 1–4	Europa Leagueleague phase · 5th place	Conference Leagueplay-off · 6th place	Any European competition
Inter	99%≈ 1 in 1.01	1%≈ 1 in 149	<1%	100%≈ 1 in 1.00
Roma	86%≈ 1 in 1.16	6%≈ 1 in 16.13	4%≈ 1 in 26.74	96%≈ 1 in 1.04
Como 1907	53%≈ 1 in 1.89	14%≈ 1 in 7.31	12%≈ 1 in 8.65	78%≈ 1 in 1.28
Milan	37%≈ 1 in 2.74	14%≈ 1 in 6.96	13%≈ 1 in 7.70	64%≈ 1 in 1.57
Lazio	32%≈ 1 in 3.14	14%≈ 1 in 7.06	15%≈ 1 in 6.87	61%≈ 1 in 1.65
Napoli	31%≈ 1 in 3.27	15%≈ 1 in 6.88	15%≈ 1 in 6.74	60%≈ 1 in 1.67
Juventus	28%≈ 1 in 3.62	13%≈ 1 in 7.46	14%≈ 1 in 7.09	55%≈ 1 in 1.81
Frosinone	17%≈ 1 in 5.74	11%≈ 1 in 9.23	13%≈ 1 in 7.85	41%≈ 1 in 2.44
Atalanta	17%≈ 1 in 5.79	11%≈ 1 in 9.20	12%≈ 1 in 8.11	40%≈ 1 in 2.47
Bologna	1%≈ 1 in 169	1%≈ 1 in 125	2%≈ 1 in 62.89	3%≈ 1 in 33.56
Sassuolo	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%≈ 1 in 164
Torino	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%≈ 1 in 159
Fiorentina	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Cagliari	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Genoa	0%	0%	<1%	<1%
Udinese	0%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Lecce	0%	0%	0%	0%
Parma	0%	0%	0%	0%
Monza	0%	0%	0%	0%
Venezia FC	0%	0%	0%	0%

Source: UEFA circular letter No 54/2026 of 9 Sep 2026, access list for the 2027/28 season — provisional; the final version comes before the end of the current European season. The association is ranked 2nd in UEFA's country coefficients (five-season association coefficients at the end of the 2025/26 season, i.e. 2021/22–2025/26). The national cup winner gets a place in the Europa League (league phase); if it has already qualified through the league, its place passes to the next team in the table (Europa League regulations, Article 3). Not included: the two extra Champions League places (EPS) for the two best countries in the current European season, known only at its end.

What the next matches change 25 Oct 2026 – 1 Nov 2026 · n = 23

What changes with the result: for every match in the coming days, each team's chances (of 1st place, the top 4 or 6, the bottom 3) if the match ends 1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win, next to “now”. The figures come from the same 10,000 simulations, split by that match's result; we show the target the result matters most for. “Impact” = by how many percentage points the two teams' chances can move in total; matches are ordered by it.

Match	Team	Target	now	if 1	if X	if 2
Juventus – Napoli1 Nov 2026 19:45 · impact 62 pp	Juventus	top 6	55%	64%	54%	47%
Juventus – Napoli1 Nov 2026 19:45 · impact 62 pp	Napoli	top 4	31%	24%	30%	38%
Atalanta – Frosinone25 Oct 2026 14:00 · impact 57 pp	Atalanta	top 6	40%	48%	38%	30%
Atalanta – Frosinone25 Oct 2026 14:00 · impact 57 pp	Frosinone	top 6	41%	35%	41%	50%
Como 1907 – Venezia FC1 Nov 2026 11:30 · impact 48 pp	Como 1907	top 4	53%	57%	45%	42%
Como 1907 – Venezia FC1 Nov 2026 11:30 · impact 48 pp	Venezia FC	bottom 3	77%	79%	74%	65%
Monza – Napoli28 Oct 2026 19:45 · impact 47 pp	Monza	bottom 3	75%	63%	74%	77%
Monza – Napoli28 Oct 2026 19:45 · impact 47 pp	Napoli	top 6	60%	48%	54%	63%
Milan – Inter31 Oct 2026 19:45 · impact 46 pp	Milan	top 4	37%	46%	37%	31%
Milan – Inter31 Oct 2026 19:45 · impact 46 pp	Inter	1st place	76%	69%	76%	81%
Lecce – Juventus25 Oct 2026 17:00 · impact 46 pp	Lecce	bottom 3	37%	26%	34%	40%
Lecce – Juventus25 Oct 2026 17:00 · impact 46 pp	Juventus	top 6	55%	43%	50%	60%
Udinese – Milan25 Oct 2026 19:45 · impact 45 pp	Udinese	bottom 3	21%	15%	20%	25%
Udinese – Milan25 Oct 2026 19:45 · impact 45 pp	Milan	top 6	64%	54%	59%	70%
Parma – Udinese28 Oct 2026 17:30 · impact 41 pp	Parma	bottom 3	54%	43%	57%	62%
Parma – Udinese28 Oct 2026 17:30 · impact 41 pp	Udinese	bottom 3	21%	28%	23%	14%
Frosinone – Lecce29 Oct 2026 17:30 · impact 39 pp	Frosinone	top 6	41%	45%	36%	32%
Frosinone – Lecce29 Oct 2026 17:30 · impact 39 pp	Lecce	bottom 3	37%	39%	37%	24%
Genoa – Juventus28 Oct 2026 19:45 · impact 39 pp	Genoa	bottom 3	20%	13%	20%	23%
Genoa – Juventus28 Oct 2026 19:45 · impact 39 pp	Juventus	top 6	55%	46%	51%	61%
Lazio – Cagliari1 Nov 2026 14:00 · impact 38 pp	Lazio	top 6	61%	66%	57%	50%
Lazio – Cagliari1 Nov 2026 14:00 · impact 38 pp	Cagliari	bottom 3	4%	5%	4%	2%
Sassuolo – Lazio27 Oct 2026 17:30 · impact 37 pp	Sassuolo	bottom 3	3%	1%	3%	4%
Sassuolo – Lazio27 Oct 2026 17:30 · impact 37 pp	Lazio	top 6	61%	52%	59%	67%
Milan – Bologna28 Oct 2026 17:30 · impact 36 pp	Milan	top 6	64%	70%	62%	54%
Milan – Bologna28 Oct 2026 17:30 · impact 36 pp	Bologna	top 6	3%	2%	3%	5%
Udinese – Roma31 Oct 2026 17:00 · impact 35 pp	Udinese	bottom 3	21%	14%	20%	24%
Udinese – Roma31 Oct 2026 17:00 · impact 35 pp	Roma	top 4	86%	79%	83%	89%
Lecce – Genoa1 Nov 2026 17:00 · impact 33 pp	Lecce	bottom 3	37%	26%	37%	44%
Lecce – Genoa1 Nov 2026 17:00 · impact 33 pp	Genoa	bottom 3	20%	27%	21%	14%
Genoa – Venezia FC25 Oct 2026 14:00 · impact 33 pp	Genoa	bottom 3	20%	15%	22%	27%
Genoa – Venezia FC25 Oct 2026 14:00 · impact 33 pp	Venezia FC	bottom 3	77%	82%	76%	67%
Frosinone – Torino1 Nov 2026 14:00 · impact 33 pp	Frosinone	top 6	41%	47%	35%	31%
Frosinone – Torino1 Nov 2026 14:00 · impact 33 pp	Torino	16th place	5%	6%	5%	3%
Venezia FC – Inter28 Oct 2026 17:30 · impact 30 pp	Venezia FC	bottom 3	77%	64%	75%	78%
Venezia FC – Inter28 Oct 2026 17:30 · impact 30 pp	Inter	1st place	76%	67%	67%	79%
Fiorentina – Atalanta29 Oct 2026 19:45 · impact 30 pp	Fiorentina	bottom 3	6%	3%	6%	7%
Fiorentina – Atalanta29 Oct 2026 19:45 · impact 30 pp	Atalanta	top 6	40%	33%	36%	47%
Torino – Como 190727 Oct 2026 19:45 · impact 29 pp	Torino	16th place	5%	4%	4%	6%
Torino – Como 190727 Oct 2026 19:45 · impact 29 pp	Como 1907	top 4	53%	45%	48%	58%
Roma – Cagliari27 Oct 2026 19:45 · impact 28 pp	Roma	top 4	86%	88%	83%	79%
Roma – Cagliari27 Oct 2026 19:45 · impact 28 pp	Cagliari	16th place	8%	9%	8%	5%
Bologna – Monza31 Oct 2026 14:00 · impact 26 pp	Bologna	16th place	2%	1%	3%	4%
Bologna – Monza31 Oct 2026 14:00 · impact 26 pp	Monza	bottom 3	75%	79%	71%	64%
Inter – Fiorentina25 Oct 2026 11:30 · impact 23 pp	Inter	1st place	76%	79%	71%	66%
Inter – Fiorentina25 Oct 2026 11:30 · impact 23 pp	Fiorentina	bottom 3	6%	7%	5%	3%

The round in scenarios

You choose the results of the coming matches (1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win), or choose nothing. The table shows the standings on points if that happens (goal difference stays as it is now, since there are no scores) and, out of the 10,000 simulations, only those in which your scenario occurred: in how many each team finished 1st, in the top 4 or 6, in the bottom 3. Nothing is pre-selected and nothing is a recommendation.

…

How the chances moved n = 8

Title chances of the top 6 teams at the latest runs. Runs happen daily, not only after rounds: between two runs with the same matches played, differences of 1–2 pp are simulation noise, not the effect of results.

run	Matches played	Inter	Roma	Como 1907	Milan	Lazio	Napoli
25 Oct 2026 07:17	75	76%	15%	3%	1%	1%	1%
25 Oct 2026 06:17	75	76%	16%	3%	1%	1%	1%
25 Oct 2026 06:05	75	76%	16%	3%	1%	1%	1%
25 Oct 2026 05:17	75	76%	15%	3%	1%	1%	1%
25 Oct 2026 04:17	75	76%	16%	3%	1%	1%	1%
25 Oct 2026 03:17	75	76%	16%	3%	2%	1%	1%
25 Oct 2026 02:17	75	76%	16%	3%	2%	1%	1%
25 Oct 2026 01:17	75	76%	15%	3%	2%	1%	1%

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:17