Newcastle United FC 0–1 Aston Villa FC

Premier League · Matchday 7 · 17 Oct 2026 16:30 UTC · referee: Jarred Gillett (62 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

0–1 · miss · surprise: 1.13 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

42%1 · Newcastle≈ 1 in 2.39

26%X≈ 1 in 3.86

32%2 · Aston Villa≈ 1 in 3.10

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side have scored in each of their last 6 matches. The home side last played 4 days ago, the away side 2 days ago. The model estimates 42% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position11 vs 16

Elo rating1531 vs 1557

Last 5WDLWL homeLDLWD away

Rest days4 vs 2

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 12% · 2–1: 9% · 1–2: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 50% vs 40%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Newcastle	Aston Villa	League
League position	11th of 20 · 8 pts	16th of 20 · 5 pts	—
Elo rating	1531	1557	—
Last 5	WDLWL	LDLWD	—
Points rate (last 10)	50%	40%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.7	1.5	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.8	1.8	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	47%	33%	50% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	8 of 10	7 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	8 of 10	56%
Days of rest	4	2	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 30% · league 36%

NewcastleAston Villaleague, year before the match · n = 374

	Newcastle	league	Aston Villa
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	36%269 of 74833–39%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	90%18 of 2070–97%	75%559 of 74871–78%	75%15 of 2053–89%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	75%15 of 2053–89%	56%208 of 37451–61%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	80%16 of 2058–92%	56%211 of 37451–61%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Concedesconceded at least once	90%18 of 2070–97%	75%559 of 74871–78%	85%17 of 2064–95%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	30%225 of 74827–33%	25%5 of 2011–47%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 7 vs 5

Newcastle · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDLWL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

8:11goals

Aston Villa · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LDLWD

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

6:7goals

Newcastle · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWDDW

11pts

3-2-0W-D-L

12:7goals

Aston Villa · Last 5 away n = 5

DWLDW

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

7:9goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 8 → 7 vs 7 → 5

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Newcastle	Aston Villa
Points (of 15)	8 → 7 ▼	7 → 5 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.8 → 1.6 ▼	1.8 → 1.2 ▼
Goals conceded per match	1.4 → 2.2 ▲	2.2 → 1.4 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1530 → 1505 easier opponents	1536 → 1544 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−7 (1531)	−7 (1557)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 4 vs 2

	Newcastle	Aston Villa
days since last match	4	2
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	1	2
position	11 (8 pts)	16 (5 pts)
points off 1st	10	13
points off top 4	2	5
points above bottom 3	5	2
matches left (incl. this one)	32	32
coach (league matches led before)	Matthias Jaissle since 5 Aug 2026 · 6 matches	Unai Emery since 1 Nov 2022 · 120 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 270 km
weather at kick-off	10 °C · 0.2 mm · 8 km/h	forecast from 17 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Newcastle 2-1-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
25 Jan 2026	Newcastle	0–2	Aston Villa
16 Aug 2025	Aston Villa	0–0	Newcastle
19 Apr 2025	Aston Villa	4–1	Newcastle
26 Dec 2024	Newcastle	3–0	Aston Villa
30 Jan 2024	Aston Villa	1–3	Newcastle

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Newcastle United FC · scoring: 6

		now	longest in our database
Newcastle United FC	scoring	6	14
Newcastle United FC	conceding	4	12
Newcastle United FC	both teams score	4	8
Newcastle United FC	3+ goals	4	11
Aston Villa FC	scoring	3	13
Aston Villa FC	conceding	3	11
Aston Villa FC	both teams score	3	7
Aston Villa FC	3+ goals	3	7

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%