Liverpool FC 0–3 Manchester City FC

Premier League · Matchday 6 · 11 Oct 2026 15:30 UTC · referee: Chris Kavanagh (81 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

0–3 · hit · surprise: 0.85 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

31%1 · Liverpool≈ 1 in 3.23

26%X≈ 1 in 3.78

43%2 · Man City≈ 1 in 2.35

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 21 matches. The away side are top of the table with 33 matches left. The model estimates 43% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position7 vs 1

Elo rating1629 vs 1700

Last 5DDWDW homeWWWWW away

Rest days21 vs 21

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 12% · 1–2: 9% · 2–1: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	7%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	4%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 47% vs 77%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Liverpool	Man City	League
League position	7th of 20 · 9 pts	1st of 20 · 15 pts	—
Elo rating	1629	1700	—
Last 5	DDWDW	WWWWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	47%	77%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.6	2.4	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.4	1.1	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	57%	73%	50% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	7 of 10	6 of 10	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 10	7 of 10	55%
Days of rest	21	21	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 45% vs 70% · league 36%

LiverpoolMan Cityleague, year before the match · n = 368

	Liverpool	league	Man City
Winswon the match	45%9 of 2026–66%	36%263 of 73632–39%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Scoresscored at least once	95%19 of 2076–99%	75%550 of 73671–78%	100%20 of 2084–100%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	55%204 of 36850–60%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	57%208 of 36851–61%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Concedesconceded at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	75%550 of 73671–78%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	35%7 of 2018–57%	30%221 of 73627–33%	60%12 of 2039–78%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 9 vs 15

Liverpool · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DDWDW

9pts

2-3-0W-D-L

7:4goals

Man City · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWWWW

15pts

5-0-0W-D-L

13:5goals

Liverpool · Last 5 at home n = 5

WDDDD

7pts

1-4-0W-D-L

7:5goals

Man City · Last 5 away n = 5

WDDWW

11pts

3-2-0W-D-L

10:5goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 5 → 9 vs 8 → 15

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Liverpool	Man City
Points (of 15)	5 → 9 ▲	8 → 15 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.8 → 1.4 ▼	2.2 → 2.6 ▲
Goals conceded per match	2.0 → 0.8 ▼	1.2 → 1.0 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1540 → 1497 easier opponents	1533 → 1521 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+4 (1629)	+17 (1700)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 21 vs 21

	Liverpool	Man City
days since last match	21	21
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	7 (9 pts)	1 (15 pts)
points off 1st	6	0
points off top 4	1	in top 4
points above bottom 3	6	12
matches left (incl. this one)	33	33
coach (league matches led before)	Andoni Iraola since 4 Jun 2026 · 5 matches	Enzo Maresca since 29 Jun 2026 · 5 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 50 km
weather at kick-off	13 °C · 0.0 mm · 6 km/h	forecast from 11 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Liverpool 2-1-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
8 Feb 2026	Liverpool	1–2	Man City
9 Nov 2025	Man City	3–0	Liverpool
23 Feb 2025	Man City	0–2	Liverpool
1 Dec 2024	Liverpool	2–0	Man City
10 Mar 2024	Liverpool	1–1	Man City

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Liverpool FC · unbeaten: 6

		now	longest in our database
Liverpool FC	unbeaten	6	26
Liverpool FC	clean sheets	3	4
Manchester City FC	unbeaten	5	32
Manchester City FC	wins in a row	5	13
Manchester City FC	scoring	21	21

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	7%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	4%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	7%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	4%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	7%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	4%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%