Chelsea FC 5–1 AFC Bournemouth

Premier League · Matchday 6 · 10 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC · referee: Sam Barrott (66 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

5–1 · hit · surprise: 0.86 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

42%1 · Chelsea≈ 1 in 2.36

26%X≈ 1 in 3.81

31%2 · Bournemouth≈ 1 in 3.18

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side are winless in their last 7 matches. The home side are 4 points above the bottom three with 33 matches left. The model estimates 42% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position10 vs 17

Elo rating1549 vs 1544

Last 5WWLDL homeLDDDL away

Rest days21 vs 20

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 12% · 2–1: 9% · 1–2: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 37% vs 40%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Chelsea	Bournemouth	League
League position	10th of 20 · 7 pts	17th of 20 · 3 pts	—
Elo rating	1549	1544	—
Last 5	WWLDL	LDDDL	—
Points rate (last 10)	37%	40%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.5	1.4	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	2.2	1.2	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	40%	63%	50% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	8 of 10	7 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	9 of 10	5 of 10	55%
Days of rest	21	20	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 30% vs 30% · league 36%

ChelseaBournemouthleague, year before the match · n = 361

	Chelsea	league	Bournemouth
Winswon the match	30%6 of 2015–52%	36%259 of 72232–39%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	74%537 of 72271–77%	80%16 of 2058–92%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	80%16 of 2058–92%	55%199 of 36150–60%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	56%202 of 36151–61%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Concedesconceded at least once	100%20 of 2084–100%	74%537 of 72271–77%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	35%7 of 2018–57%	30%219 of 72227–34%	35%7 of 2018–57%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 7 vs 3

Chelsea · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWLDL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

10:12goals

Bournemouth · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LDDDL

3pts

0-3-2W-D-L

6:8goals

Chelsea · Last 5 at home n = 5

LLWWD

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

9:10goals

Bournemouth · Last 5 away n = 5

WWDLD

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

7:6goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 4 → 7 vs 9 → 3

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Chelsea	Bournemouth
Points (of 15)	4 → 7 ▲	9 → 3 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.0 → 2.0 ▲	1.6 → 1.2 ▼
Goals conceded per match	2.0 → 2.4 ▲	0.8 → 1.6 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1532 → 1561 tougher opponents	1547 → 1578 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−3 (1549)	−9 (1544)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 21 vs 20

	Chelsea	Bournemouth
days since last match	21	20
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	10 (7 pts)	17 (3 pts)
points off 1st	8	12
points off top 4	2	6
points above bottom 3	4	0
matches left (incl. this one)	33	33
coach (league matches led before)	Xabi Alonso since 1 Jul 2026 · 5 matches	Marco Rose since 3 Jun 2026 · 5 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 140 km
weather at kick-off	15 °C · 0.0 mm · 17 km/h	forecast from 10 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Chelsea 2-3-0 (n = 5)

	home		away
30 Dec 2025	Chelsea	2–2	Bournemouth
6 Dec 2025	Bournemouth	0–0	Chelsea
14 Jan 2025	Chelsea	2–2	Bournemouth
14 Sep 2024	Bournemouth	0–1	Chelsea
19 May 2024	Chelsea	2–1	Bournemouth

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Chelsea FC · winless: 3

		now	longest in our database
Chelsea FC	winless	3	7
Chelsea FC	conceding	21	21
Chelsea FC	3+ goals	7	8
AFC Bournemouth	winless	7	11
AFC Bournemouth	conceding	7	10

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%