RadarAston Villa FC 1–2 Nottingham Forest FC
Premier League · Matchday 4 · · referee: Andy Madley (62 matches in our database) · Derby
After the match
i
The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.
1–2
No estimate was frozen before this match.
Model estimate
i
The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.
No estimate was frozen before this match.
In three sentences
i
Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.
The away side are winless in their last 6 matches. The home side last played 3 days ago, the away side 7 days ago. No estimate was frozen before this match.
Side by side at a glance
i
Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.
points rate 40% vs 47%
The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. ● = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.
| Aston Villa | Nottingham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th of 20 · 1 pts | 16th of 20 · 2 pts ● | — |
| Elo rating | 1560 ● | 1508 | — |
| Last 5 | WWLLD | LDLDD | — |
| Points rate (last 10) | 40% | 47% ● | 45% |
| Goals scored per match (10) | 1.4 | 1.9 ● | — |
| Goals conceded per match (10) | 1.7 | 1.1 ● | — |
| At venue (10): home team at home, away team away | 43% | 57% | 51% · 39% |
| Both teams score (10) | 6 of 10 | 7 of 10 | 57% |
| 3+ goals in the match (10) | 6 of 10 | 5 of 10 | 55% |
| Days of rest | 3 | 7 | — |
Match radar
i
Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.
Wins: 30% vs 25% · league 36%
Aston VillaNottinghamleague, year before the match · n = 380
| Aston Villa | league | Nottingham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winswon the match | 30%6 of 2015–52% | 36%272 of 76032–39% | 25%5 of 2011–47% |
| Scoresscored at least once | 65%13 of 2043–82% | 75%572 of 76072–78% | 70%14 of 2048–85% |
| 3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not) | 40%8 of 2022–61% | 55%210 of 38050–60% | 45%9 of 2026–66% |
| Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not) | 50%10 of 2030–70% | 57%218 of 38052–62% | 55%11 of 2034–74% |
| Concedesconceded at least once | 80%16 of 2058–92% | 75%572 of 76072–78% | 65%13 of 2043–82% |
| Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not) | 25%5 of 2011–47% | 31%235 of 76028–34% | 30%6 of 2015–52% |
Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.
Form before the match
i
Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.
points, last 5: 7 vs 3
Aston Villa · Last 5, anywhere n = 5
Nottingham · Last 5, anywhere n = 5
Aston Villa · Last 5 at home n = 5
Nottingham · Last 5 away n = 5
What changed
i
Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.
Points (of 15): 5 → 7 vs 11 → 3
The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.
| Aston Villa | Nottingham | |
|---|---|---|
| Points (of 15) | 5 → 7 ▲ | 11 → 3 ▼ |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 → 1.2 ▼ | 2.8 → 1.0 ▼ |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 → 1.6 ▼ | 0.8 → 1.4 ▲ |
| Average Elo of the opponents | 1464 → 1616 tougher opponents | 1509 → 1538 tougher opponents |
| Elo over the last 5 matches | +3 (1560) | −9 (1508) |
Context
i
Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.
rest days: 3 vs 7
| Aston Villa | Nottingham | |
|---|---|---|
| days since last match | 3 | 7 |
| matches in last 7 days | 2 | 1 |
| matches in last 14 days | 3 | 1 |
| position | 17 (1 pts) | 16 (2 pts) |
| points off 1st | 8 | 7 |
| points off top 4 | 5 | 4 |
| points above bottom 3 | 0 | 1 |
| matches left (incl. this one) | 35 | 35 |
| coach (league matches led before) | Unai Emery since 1 Nov 2022 · 117 matches | Oliver Glasner since 6 Jul 2026 · 3 matches |
| travel distance (away side) | — | ≈ 70 km |
Derby: Midlands derby.
Weather was not recorded for this match.
no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.
Head-to-head
i
The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.
Aston Villa 3-1-1 (n = 5)
Aston Villa 3-1-1 (n = 5)
| home | away | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | Nottingham | 1–1 | Aston Villa |
| 3 Jan 2026 | Aston Villa | 3–1 | Nottingham |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Aston Villa | 2–1 | Nottingham |
| 14 Dec 2024 | Nottingham | 2–1 | Aston Villa |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Aston Villa | 4–2 | Nottingham |
Ongoing streaks
i
Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.
Aston Villa FC · winless: 3
| now | longest in our database | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa FC | winless | 3 | 6 |
| Aston Villa FC | without scoring | 3 | 5 |
| Nottingham Forest FC | winless | 6 | 9 |
Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20