Aston Villa FC 2–2 Brentford FC

Premier League · Matchday 6 · 10 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC · referee: Craig Pawson (66 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

2–2 · miss · surprise: 1.30 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

38%1 · Aston Villa≈ 1 in 2.64

27%X≈ 1 in 3.67

35%2 · Brentford≈ 1 in 2.87

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side are unbeaten in their last 7 matches. The away side are 6 points off 1st place with 33 matches left. The model estimates 38% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position16 vs 4

Elo rating1558 vs 1537

Last 5LLDLW homeWDDDW away

Rest days21 vs 21

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 2–1: 9% · 1–2: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	13%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 37% vs 47%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Aston Villa	Brentford	League
League position	16th of 20 · 4 pts	4th of 20 · 9 pts	—
Elo rating	1558	1537	—
Last 5	LLDLW	WDDDW	—
Points rate (last 10)	37%	47%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.3	1.7	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.7	1.2	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	43%	47%	50% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	6 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	7 of 10	55%
Days of rest	21	21	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 30% vs 30% · league 36%

Aston VillaBrentfordleague, year before the match · n = 361

	Aston Villa	league	Brentford
Winswon the match	30%6 of 2015–52%	36%259 of 72232–39%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	74%537 of 72271–77%	75%15 of 2053–89%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	55%199 of 36150–60%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	56%202 of 36151–61%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Concedesconceded at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	74%537 of 72271–77%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	25%5 of 2011–47%	30%219 of 72227–34%	35%7 of 2018–57%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 4 vs 9

Aston Villa · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLDLW

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

4:9goals

Brentford · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDDDW

9pts

2-3-0W-D-L

10:4goals

Aston Villa · Last 5 at home n = 5

WLWLL

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

10:10goals

Brentford · Last 5 away n = 5

LLDDD

3pts

0-3-2W-D-L

5:9goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 4 vs 5 → 9

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Aston Villa	Brentford
Points (of 15)	7 → 4 ▼	5 → 9 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.8 → 0.8 ▼	1.4 → 2.0 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.6 → 1.8 ▲	1.6 → 0.8 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1530 → 1544 tougher opponents	1565 → 1519 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−15 (1558)	+15 (1537)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 21 vs 21

	Aston Villa	Brentford
days since last match	21	21
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	16 (4 pts)	4 (9 pts)
points off 1st	11	6
points off top 4	5	in top 4
points above bottom 3	1	6
matches left (incl. this one)	33	33
coach (league matches led before)	Unai Emery since 1 Nov 2022 · 119 matches	Keith Andrews since 27 Jun 2025 · 43 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 160 km
weather at kick-off	13 °C · 0.0 mm · 22 km/h	forecast from 10 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Aston Villa 2-1-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
1 Feb 2026	Aston Villa	0–1	Brentford
23 Aug 2025	Brentford	1–0	Aston Villa
8 Mar 2025	Brentford	0–1	Aston Villa
4 Dec 2024	Aston Villa	3–1	Brentford
6 Apr 2024	Aston Villa	3–3	Brentford

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Brentford FC · unbeaten: 7

		now	longest in our database
Brentford FC	unbeaten	7	7
Brentford FC	scoring	7	13

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	13%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	13%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	13%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%