Sunderland AFC 0–2 Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Premier League · Matchday 6 · 10 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC · referee: Thomas Bramall (48 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

0–2 · hit · surprise: 0.82 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

28%1 · Sunderland≈ 1 in 3.61

28%X≈ 1 in 3.57

44%2 · Brighton Hove≈ 1 in 2.26

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 5 matches. The away side travel roughly 460 km. The model estimates 44% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position14 vs 3

Elo rating1499 vs 1561

Last 5LWDLL homeWLDWW away

Rest days20 vs 21

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 0–1: 9% · 1–2: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	9%	8%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	13%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 40% vs 53%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Sunderland	Brighton Hove	League
League position	14th of 20 · 4 pts	3rd of 20 · 10 pts	—
Elo rating	1499	1561	—
Last 5	LWDLL	WLDWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	40%	53%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.2	2.3	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.8	1.2	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	43%	43%	50% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	3 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 10	8 of 10	55%
Days of rest	20	21	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 50% · league 36%

SunderlandBrighton Hoveleague, year before the match · n = 361

	Sunderland	league	Brighton Hove
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	36%259 of 72232–39%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Scoresscored at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	74%537 of 72271–77%	75%15 of 2053–89%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	55%199 of 36150–60%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	56%202 of 36151–61%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	74%537 of 72271–77%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	20%4 of 208–42%	30%219 of 72227–34%	40%8 of 2022–61%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 4 vs 10

Sunderland · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWDLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

6:10goals

Brighton Hove · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLDWW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

16:5goals

Sunderland · Last 5 at home n = 5

LDWWL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

3:8goals

Brighton Hove · Last 5 away n = 5

DLLLW

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

11:10goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 8 → 4 vs 6 → 10

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Sunderland	Brighton Hove
Points (of 15)	8 → 4 ▼	6 → 10 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.2 → 1.2 =	1.4 → 3.2 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.6 → 2.0 ▲	1.4 → 1.0 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1503 → 1568 tougher opponents	1513 → 1570 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−8 (1499)	+25 (1561)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 20 vs 21

	Sunderland	Brighton Hove
days since last match	20	21
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	14 (4 pts)	3 (10 pts)
points off 1st	11	5
points off top 4	5	in top 4
points above bottom 3	1	7
matches left (incl. this one)	33	33
coach (league matches led before)	Régis Le Bris since 1 Jul 2024 · 43 matches	Fabian Hürzeler since 1 Jul 2024 · 81 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 460 km
weather at kick-off	13 °C · 0.0 mm · 31 km/h	forecast from 10 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Sunderland 0-1-1 (n = 2)

	home		away
14 Mar 2026	Sunderland	0–1	Brighton Hove
20 Dec 2025	Brighton Hove	0–0	Sunderland

All 3 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Sunderland AFC · winless: 3

		now	longest in our database
Sunderland AFC	winless	3	5
Sunderland AFC	conceding	3	7
Brighton & Hove Albion FC	unbeaten	3	6
Brighton & Hove Albion FC	scoring	5	16

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	9%	8%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	13%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	9%	8%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	13%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	9%	8%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	13%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%