Nottingham Forest FC – Manchester City FC

Premier League · Matchday 10 · 7 Nov 2026 17:30 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

22%1 · Nottingham≈ 1 in 4.64

27%X≈ 1 in 3.76

52%2 · Man City≈ 1 in 1.93

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

As of today, the away side have scored in each of their last 24 matches. The home side last played 7 days ago, the away side 2 days ago. The model estimates 52% for an away win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 1 league matches to play, the away side 1.

League position18 vs 1

Elo rating1498 vs 1703

Last 5WLLLD homeWWWWL away

Rest days7 vs 2

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 0–1: 10% · 0–2: 10%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	10%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	6%	13%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	3%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 23% vs 73%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Nottingham	Man City	League
League position	18th of 20 · 6 pts	1st of 20 · 21 pts	—
Elo rating	1498	1703	—
Last 5	WLLLD	WWWWL	—
Points rate (last 10)	23%	73%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	0.9	2.2	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.4	1.2	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	27%	70%	49% · 41%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	7 of 10	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	4 of 10	7 of 10	55%
Days of rest	7	2	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 0.00 vs 2.25

	Nottingham at home	Man City away
matches	4	4
scored / match	0.00league 1.57	2.25league 1.27
conceded / match	0.75league 1.27	0.75league 1.57
both scored	0%0 of 4 · league 52%	50%2 of 4 · league 52%
3+ goals	0%0 of 4 · league 52%	75%3 of 4 · league 52%
clean sheet	25%1 of 4 · league 25%	50%2 of 4 · league 29%
failed to score	100%4 of 4 · league 29%	0%0 of 4 · league 25%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 25% vs 70% · league 35%

NottinghamMan Cityleague, year before the match · n = 355

	Nottingham	league	Man City
Winswon the match	25%5 of 2011–47%	35%251 of 71032–39%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Scoresscored at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	75%530 of 71071–78%	100%20 of 2084–100%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	55%194 of 35549–60%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	57%201 of 35551–62%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	75%530 of 71071–78%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	25%5 of 2011–47%	29%208 of 71026–33%	55%11 of 2034–74%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 4 vs 12

Nottingham · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLLLD

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

4:7goals

Man City · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWWWL

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

13:7goals

Nottingham · Last 5 at home n = 5

DLDLL

2pts

0-2-3W-D-L

1:4goals

Man City · Last 5 away n = 5

DWWWL

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

10:4goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 3 → 4 vs 10 → 12

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Nottingham	Man City
Points (of 15)	3 → 4 ▲	10 → 12 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.0 → 0.8 ▼	1.8 → 2.6 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.4 → 1.4 =	1.0 → 1.4 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1538 → 1529 easier opponents	1532 → 1532 the same
Elo over the last 5 matches	−10 (1498)	+10 (1703)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 2

	Nottingham	Man City
days since last match	7	2
matches in last 7 days	0	1
matches in last 14 days	1	2
position today	18 (6 pts)	1 (21 pts)
points off 1st	15	0
points off top 4	7	in top 4
points above bottom 3	bottom 3 · 0 off 17th	15
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
coach (league matches led before)	Oliver Glasner since 6 Jul 2026 · 8 matches	Enzo Maresca since 29 Jun 2026 · 8 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 90 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Nottingham 1-1-3 (n = 5)

	home		away
4 Mar 2026	Man City	2–2	Nottingham
27 Dec 2025	Nottingham	1–2	Man City
8 Mar 2025	Nottingham	1–0	Man City
4 Dec 2024	Man City	3–0	Nottingham
28 Apr 2024	Nottingham	0–2	Man City

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Nottingham Forest FC · winless: 4

		now	longest in our database
Nottingham Forest FC	winless	4	9
Nottingham Forest FC	conceding	5	19
Manchester City FC	scoring	24	24
Manchester City FC	3+ goals	4	9

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	10%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	6%	13%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	3%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	10%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	6%	13%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	3%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	10%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	6%	13%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	3%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%