Manchester United FC 1–1 Tottenham Hotspur FC

Premier League · Matchday 6 · 10 Oct 2026 16:30 UTC · referee: Stuart Attwell (65 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–1 · miss · surprise: 1.43 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

56%1 · Man United≈ 1 in 1.77

24%X≈ 1 in 4.20

20%2 · Tottenham≈ 1 in 5.07

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side are winless in their last 5 matches. The home side are 2 points above the bottom three with 33 matches left. The model estimates 56% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position12 vs 20

Elo rating1558 vs 1452

Last 5LWDLD homeLLDDL away

Rest days20 vs 21

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 11% · 2–1: 10% · 2–0: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 60% vs 40%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Man United	Tottenham	League
League position	12th of 20 · 5 pts	20th of 20 · 2 pts	—
Elo rating	1558	1452	—
Last 5	LWDLD	LLDDL	—
Points rate (last 10)	60%	40%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.9	0.8	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.3	1.2	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	80%	30%	50% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	4 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	6 of 10	4 of 10	55%
Days of rest	20	21	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 55% vs 15% · league 36%

Man UnitedTottenhamleague, year before the match · n = 365

	Man United	league	Tottenham
Winswon the match	55%11 of 2034–74%	36%262 of 73032–39%	15%3 of 205–36%
Scoresscored at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	75%544 of 73071–78%	65%13 of 2043–82%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	55%202 of 36550–60%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	56%205 of 36551–61%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	75%544 of 73071–78%	80%16 of 2058–92%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	35%7 of 2018–57%	30%220 of 73027–34%	10%2 of 203–30%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 5 vs 2

Man United · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWDLD

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

8:8goals

Tottenham · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLDDL

2pts

0-2-3W-D-L

2:8goals

Man United · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWWWL

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

13:8goals

Tottenham · Last 5 away n = 5

WWLLD

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

4:6goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 13 → 5 vs 10 → 2

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Man United	Tottenham
Points (of 15)	13 → 5 ▼	10 → 2 ▼
Goals scored per match	2.2 → 1.6 ▼	1.2 → 0.4 ▼
Goals conceded per match	1.0 → 1.6 ▲	0.8 → 1.6 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1544 → 1525 (4 of 5) easier opponents	1507 → 1526 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−8 (1558)	−16 (1452)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 20 vs 21

	Man United	Tottenham
days since last match	20	21
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	12 (5 pts)	20 (2 pts)
points off 1st	10	13
points off top 4	4	7
points above bottom 3	2	bottom 3 · 1 off 17th
matches left (incl. this one)	33	33
coach (league matches led before)	Michael Carrick since 13 Jan 2026 · 22 matches	Roberto De Zerbi since 31 Mar 2026 · 12 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 260 km
weather at kick-off	11 °C · 0.4 mm · 20 km/h	forecast from 10 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Man United 1-2-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
7 Feb 2026	Man United	2–0	Tottenham
8 Nov 2025	Tottenham	2–2	Man United
16 Feb 2025	Tottenham	1–0	Man United
29 Sep 2024	Man United	0–3	Tottenham
14 Jan 2024	Man United	2–2	Tottenham

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Manchester United FC · winless: 3

		now	longest in our database
Manchester United FC	winless	3	8
Manchester United FC	conceding	5	10
Tottenham Hotspur FC	winless	5	15

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%