Leeds United FC 1–1 Manchester United FC

Premier League · Matchday 7 · 18 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC · referee: Darren England (59 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–1 · miss · surprise: 1.27 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

38%1 · Leeds United≈ 1 in 2.62

28%X≈ 1 in 3.57

34%2 · Man United≈ 1 in 2.96

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side are winless in their last 4 matches. The home side last played 8 days ago, the away side 4 days ago. The model estimates 38% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position8 vs 14

Elo rating1518 vs 1556

Last 5DDWDL homeWDLDD away

Rest days8 vs 4

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 2–1: 9% · 0–0: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	7%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	13%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 53% vs 53%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Leeds United	Man United	League
League position	8th of 20 · 9 pts	14th of 20 · 6 pts	—
Elo rating	1518	1556	—
Last 5	DDWDL	WDLDD	—
Points rate (last 10)	53%	53%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.3	1.8	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.0	1.3	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	60%	47%	50% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	6 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	4 of 10	5 of 10	55%
Days of rest	8	4	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 50% · league 36%

Leeds UnitedMan Unitedleague, year before the match · n = 374

	Leeds United	league	Man United
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	36%269 of 74833–39%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Scoresscored at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	75%559 of 74871–78%	85%17 of 2064–95%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	55%207 of 37450–60%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	56%211 of 37451–61%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Concedesconceded at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	75%559 of 74871–78%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	35%7 of 2018–57%	30%226 of 74827–34%	30%6 of 2015–52%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 6 vs 6

Leeds United · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DDWDL

6pts

1-3-1W-D-L

7:5goals

Man United · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDLDD

6pts

1-3-1W-D-L

9:7goals

Leeds United · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWDWD

11pts

3-2-0W-D-L

9:3goals

Man United · Last 5 away n = 5

DWLDD

6pts

1-3-1W-D-L

6:5goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 10 → 6 vs 10 → 6

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Leeds United	Man United
Points (of 15)	10 → 6 ▼	10 → 6 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.2 → 1.4 ▲	1.8 → 1.8 =
Goals conceded per match	1.0 → 1.0 =	1.2 → 1.4 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1469 → 1562 tougher opponents	1550 (4 of 5) → 1511 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+6 (1518)	−2 (1556)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 8 vs 4

	Leeds United	Man United
days since last match	8	4
matches in last 7 days	0	1
matches in last 14 days	1	2
position	8 (9 pts)	14 (6 pts)
points off 1st	12	15
points off top 4	4	7
points above bottom 3	5	2
matches left (incl. this one)	32	32
coach (league matches led before)	Daniel Farke since 4 Jul 2023 · 44 matches	Michael Carrick since 13 Jan 2026 · 23 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 60 km
weather at kick-off	12 °C · 0.0 mm · 16 km/h	forecast from 18 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Leeds United 1-1-0 (n = 2)

	home		away
13 Apr 2026	Man United	1–2	Leeds United
4 Jan 2026	Leeds United	1–1	Man United

All 3 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Manchester United FC · winless: 4

		now	longest in our database
Manchester United FC	winless	4	8
Manchester United FC	conceding	6	10

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	7%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	13%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	7%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	13%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	7%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	13%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%