Everton FC 0–2 Chelsea FC

Premier League · Matchday 7 · 17 Oct 2026 11:30 UTC · referee: Paul Tierney (41 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

0–2 · hit · surprise: 1.03 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

36%1 · Everton≈ 1 in 2.81

29%X≈ 1 in 3.46

36%2 · Chelsea≈ 1 in 2.81

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are unbeaten in their last 6 matches. The home side are 7 points above the bottom three with 32 matches left. The model estimates 36% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position5 vs 6

Elo rating1512 vs 1557

Last 5DDDWD homeWLDLW away

Rest days5 vs 6

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 14% · 0–0: 8% · 0–1: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	14%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 40% vs 47%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Everton	Chelsea	League
League position	5th of 20 · 10 pts	6th of 20 · 10 pts	—
Elo rating	1512	1557	—
Last 5	DDDWD	WLDLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	40%	47%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.4	2.0	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.4	2.0	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	47%	33%	50% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	9 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 10	9 of 10	56%
Days of rest	5	6	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 30% vs 30% · league 36%

EvertonChelsealeague, year before the match · n = 370

	Everton	league	Chelsea
Winswon the match	30%6 of 2015–52%	36%265 of 74032–39%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	75%553 of 74071–78%	70%14 of 2048–85%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	56%206 of 37051–61%	80%16 of 2058–92%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	56%209 of 37051–61%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	75%553 of 74071–78%	100%20 of 2084–100%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	35%7 of 2018–57%	30%222 of 74027–33%	40%8 of 2022–61%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 7 vs 7

Everton · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DDDWD

7pts

1-4-0W-D-L

6:5goals

Chelsea · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLDLW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

12:11goals

Everton · Last 5 at home n = 5

DLWDW

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

9:8goals

Chelsea · Last 5 away n = 5

DLWLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

6:10goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 5 → 7 vs 7 → 7

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Everton	Chelsea
Points (of 15)	5 → 7 ▲	7 → 7 =
Goals scored per match	1.6 → 1.2 ▼	1.6 → 2.4 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.8 → 1.0 ▼	1.8 → 2.2 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1531 → 1497 easier opponents	1524 → 1568 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+5 (1512)	±0 (1557)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 5 vs 6

	Everton	Chelsea
days since last match	5	6
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position	5 (10 pts)	6 (10 pts)
points off 1st	8	8
points off top 4	0	0
points above bottom 3	7	7
matches left (incl. this one)	32	32
coach (league matches led before)	no data	Xabi Alonso since 1 Jul 2026 · 6 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 290 km
weather at kick-off	11 °C · 0.0 mm · 8 km/h	forecast from 17 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Everton 1-1-3 (n = 5)

	home		away
21 Mar 2026	Everton	3–0	Chelsea
13 Dec 2025	Chelsea	2–0	Everton
26 Apr 2025	Chelsea	1–0	Everton
22 Dec 2024	Everton	0–0	Chelsea
15 Apr 2024	Chelsea	6–0	Everton

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Everton FC · unbeaten: 6

		now	longest in our database
Everton FC	unbeaten	6	9
Chelsea FC	conceding	22	22
Chelsea FC	3+ goals	8	8

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	14%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	14%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	14%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%