Crystal Palace FC 3–1 Nottingham Forest FC

Premier League · Matchday 6 · 11 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC · referee: Peter Bankes (62 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

3–1 · miss · surprise: 1.14 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

32%1 · Crystal Palace≈ 1 in 3.12

31%X≈ 1 in 3.27

37%2 · Nottingham≈ 1 in 2.68

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side took 4 points from their last 5 matches, the away side 5 from their last 5. The away side are 2 points above the bottom three with 33 matches left. The model estimates 37% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position15 vs 13

Elo rating1492 vs 1508

Last 5LLWLD homeLDDWL away

Rest days21 vs 21

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 15% · 0–0: 11% · 0–1: 10%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	15%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 20% vs 43%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Crystal Palace	Nottingham	League
League position	15th of 20 · 4 pts	13th of 20 · 5 pts	—
Elo rating	1492	1508	—
Last 5	LLWLD	LDDWL	—
Points rate (last 10)	20%	43%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.1	1.6	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	2.3	1.1	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	30%	57%	50% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	6 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	8 of 10	5 of 10	55%
Days of rest	21	21	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 25% vs 25% · league 36%

Crystal PalaceNottinghamleague, year before the match · n = 366

	Crystal Palace	league	Nottingham
Winswon the match	25%5 of 2011–47%	36%262 of 73232–39%	25%5 of 2011–47%
Scoresscored at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	75%546 of 73271–78%	70%14 of 2048–85%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	55%202 of 36650–60%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	56%206 of 36651–61%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	75%546 of 73271–78%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	10%2 of 203–30%	30%220 of 73227–33%	25%5 of 2011–47%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 4 vs 5

Crystal Palace · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLWLD

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

6:11goals

Nottingham · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LDDWL

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

4:5goals

Crystal Palace · Last 5 at home n = 5

DDLLL

2pts

0-2-3W-D-L

6:11goals

Nottingham · Last 5 away n = 5

WWLDW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

14:7goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 2 → 4 vs 8 → 5

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Crystal Palace	Nottingham
Points (of 15)	2 → 4 ▲	8 → 5 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.0 → 1.2 ▲	2.4 → 0.8 ▼
Goals conceded per match	2.4 → 2.2 ▼	1.2 → 1.0 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1592 → 1520 easier opponents	1542 → 1525 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−12 (1492)	−5 (1508)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 21 vs 21

	Crystal Palace	Nottingham
days since last match	21	21
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	15 (4 pts)	13 (5 pts)
points off 1st	11	10
points off top 4	6	5
points above bottom 3	1	2
matches left (incl. this one)	33	33
coach (league matches led before)	Pierre Sage since 15 Jun 2026 · 5 matches	Oliver Glasner since 6 Jul 2026 · 5 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 190 km
weather at kick-off	14 °C · 0.0 mm · 8 km/h	forecast from 11 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Crystal Palace 0-4-1 (n = 5)

	home		away
1 Feb 2026	Nottingham	1–1	Crystal Palace
24 Aug 2025	Crystal Palace	1–1	Nottingham
5 May 2025	Crystal Palace	1–1	Nottingham
21 Oct 2024	Nottingham	1–0	Crystal Palace
30 Mar 2024	Nottingham	1–1	Crystal Palace

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Show

No streak of 3+ matches.

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	15%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	15%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	10%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	15%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%