Brighton & Hove Albion FC 5–0 Crystal Palace FC

Premier League · Matchday 7 · 18 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC · referee: Robert Jones (66 matches in our database) · Derby

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

5–0 · hit · surprise: 0.55 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

58%1 · Brighton Hove≈ 1 in 1.73

24%X≈ 1 in 4.22

18%2 · Crystal Palace≈ 1 in 5.44

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side have scored in each of their last 6 matches. The home side are 8 points off 1st place with 32 matches left. The model estimates 58% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position3 vs 13

Elo rating1569 vs 1498

Last 5LDWWW homeLWLDW away

Rest days7 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 11% · 2–0: 10% · 2–1: 10%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	11%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 53% vs 30%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Brighton Hove	Crystal Palace	League
League position	3rd of 20 · 13 pts	13th of 20 · 7 pts	—
Elo rating	1569	1498	—
Last 5	LDWWW	LWLDW	—
Points rate (last 10)	53%	30%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	2.2	1.4	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.2	2.1	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	63%	37%	50% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	3 of 10	7 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	8 of 10	55%
Days of rest	7	7	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 55% vs 30% · league 36%

Brighton HoveCrystal Palaceleague, year before the match · n = 374

	Brighton Hove	league	Crystal Palace
Winswon the match	55%11 of 2034–74%	36%269 of 74833–39%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	75%559 of 74871–78%	70%14 of 2048–85%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	55%207 of 37450–60%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	30%6 of 2015–52%	56%211 of 37451–61%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Concedesconceded at least once	55%11 of 2034–74%	75%559 of 74871–78%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	30%226 of 74827–34%	15%3 of 205–36%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 10 vs 7

Brighton Hove · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LDWWW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

14:5goals

Crystal Palace · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWLDW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

9:10goals

Brighton Hove · Last 5 at home n = 5

WLWDW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

11:4goals

Crystal Palace · Last 5 away n = 5

LDLWD

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

5:9goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 6 → 10 vs 2 → 7

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Brighton Hove	Crystal Palace
Points (of 15)	6 → 10 ▲	2 → 7 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.6 → 2.8 ▲	1.0 → 1.8 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.4 → 1.0 ▼	2.2 → 2.0 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1513 → 1555 tougher opponents	1585 → 1522 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+24 (1569)	+1 (1498)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 7

	Brighton Hove	Crystal Palace
days since last match	7	7
matches in last 7 days	0	1
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position	3 (13 pts)	13 (7 pts)
points off 1st	8	14
points off top 4	in top 4	6
points above bottom 3	9	3
matches left (incl. this one)	32	32
coach (league matches led before)	Fabian Hürzeler since 1 Jul 2024 · 82 matches	Pierre Sage since 15 Jun 2026 · 6 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 60 km
weather at kick-off	11 °C · 0.2 mm · 18 km/h	forecast from 18 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

Derby: M23 derby.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Brighton Hove 1-1-3 (n = 5)

	home		away
8 Feb 2026	Brighton Hove	0–1	Crystal Palace
9 Nov 2025	Crystal Palace	0–0	Brighton Hove
5 Apr 2025	Crystal Palace	2–1	Brighton Hove
15 Dec 2024	Brighton Hove	1–3	Crystal Palace
3 Feb 2024	Brighton Hove	4–1	Crystal Palace

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Brighton & Hove Albion FC · unbeaten: 4

		now	longest in our database
Brighton & Hove Albion FC	unbeaten	4	6
Brighton & Hove Albion FC	wins in a row	3	4
Brighton & Hove Albion FC	scoring	6	16
Brighton & Hove Albion FC	clean sheets	3	3

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	11%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	11%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	11%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%