AFC Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland AFC

Premier League · Matchday 7 · 18 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC · referee: Craig Pawson (66 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

2–0 · hit · surprise: 0.73 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

48%1 · Bournemouth≈ 1 in 2.06

28%X≈ 1 in 3.63

24%2 · Sunderland≈ 1 in 4.17

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are winless in their last 8 matches. The away side travel roughly 470 km. The model estimates 48% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position19 vs 18

Elo rating1536 vs 1492

Last 5DDDLL homeWDLLL away

Rest days7 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 1–0: 10% · 2–0: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	9%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 37% vs 40%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Bournemouth	Sunderland	League
League position	19th of 20 · 3 pts	18th of 20 · 4 pts	—
Elo rating	1536	1492	—
Last 5	DDDLL	WDLLL	—
Points rate (last 10)	37%	40%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.3	1.2	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.5	1.5	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	37%	40%	50% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	7 of 10	6 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 10	4 of 10	55%
Days of rest	7	7	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 25% vs 30% · league 36%

BournemouthSunderlandleague, year before the match · n = 374

	Bournemouth	league	Sunderland
Winswon the match	25%5 of 2011–47%	36%269 of 74833–39%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	75%559 of 74871–78%	65%13 of 2043–82%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	55%207 of 37450–60%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	56%211 of 37451–61%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	75%559 of 74871–78%	80%16 of 2058–92%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	30%6 of 2015–52%	30%226 of 74827–34%	15%3 of 205–36%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 3 vs 4

Bournemouth · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DDDLL

3pts

0-3-2W-D-L

6:11goals

Sunderland · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDLLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

5:10goals

Bournemouth · Last 5 at home n = 5

WDDDL

6pts

1-3-1W-D-L

7:5goals

Sunderland · Last 5 away n = 5

DWLDL

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

9:10goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 8 → 3 vs 8 → 4

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Bournemouth	Sunderland
Points (of 15)	8 → 3 ▼	8 → 4 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.4 → 1.2 ▼	1.4 → 1.0 ▼
Goals conceded per match	0.8 → 2.2 ▲	1.0 → 2.0 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1582 → 1551 easier opponents	1483 → 1600 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−14 (1536)	−9 (1492)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 7

	Bournemouth	Sunderland
days since last match	7	7
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position	19 (3 pts)	18 (4 pts)
points off 1st	18	17
points off top 4	10	9
points above bottom 3	bottom 3 · 2 off 17th	bottom 3 · 1 off 17th
matches left (incl. this one)	32	32
coach (league matches led before)	Marco Rose since 3 Jun 2026 · 6 matches	Régis Le Bris since 1 Jul 2024 · 44 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 470 km
weather at kick-off	13 °C · 0.0 mm · 17 km/h	forecast from 18 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Bournemouth 0-1-1 (n = 2)

	home		away
28 Feb 2026	Bournemouth	1–1	Sunderland
29 Nov 2025	Sunderland	3–2	Bournemouth

All 3 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

AFC Bournemouth · winless: 8

		now	longest in our database
AFC Bournemouth	winless	8	11
AFC Bournemouth	conceding	8	10
Sunderland AFC	winless	4	5
Sunderland AFC	conceding	4	7

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	9%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	9%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	9%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%