Arsenal FC 2–1 Leeds United FC

Premier League · Matchday 6 · 10 Oct 2026 11:30 UTC · referee: Paul Tierney (41 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

2–1 · hit · surprise: 0.49 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

61%1 · Arsenal≈ 1 in 1.64

26%X≈ 1 in 3.90

13%2 · Leeds United≈ 1 in 7.48

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side are unbeaten in their last 5 matches. The home side are 3 points off 1st place with 33 matches left. The model estimates 61% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position2 vs 5

Elo rating1705 vs 1520

Last 5WWWWL homeWDDWD away

Rest days20 vs 19

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–0: 14% · 2–0: 13% · 1–1: 12%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	10%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	14%	12%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	13%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 90% vs 57%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Arsenal	Leeds United	League
League position	2nd of 20 · 12 pts	5th of 20 · 9 pts	—
Elo rating	1705	1520	—
Last 5	WWWWL	WDDWD	—
Points rate (last 10)	90%	57%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.6	1.4	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	0.5	1.0	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	80%	43%	50% · 41%
Both teams score (10)	2 of 10	6 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 10	4 of 10	55%
Days of rest	20	19	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 75% vs 35% · league 36%

ArsenalLeeds Unitedleague, year before the match · n = 360

	Arsenal	league	Leeds United
Winswon the match	75%15 of 2053–89%	36%258 of 72032–39%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Scoresscored at least once	95%19 of 2076–99%	74%535 of 72071–77%	65%13 of 2043–82%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	55%198 of 36050–60%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	56%201 of 36051–61%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Concedesconceded at least once	45%9 of 2026–66%	74%535 of 72071–77%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	30%219 of 72027–34%	35%7 of 2018–57%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 12 vs 9

Arsenal · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWWWL

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

8:4goals

Leeds United · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDDWD

9pts

2-3-0W-D-L

7:3goals

Arsenal · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWWWW

15pts

5-0-0W-D-L

10:1goals

Leeds United · Last 5 away n = 5

DDLWD

6pts

1-3-1W-D-L

5:7goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 15 → 12 vs 8 → 9

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Arsenal	Leeds United
Points (of 15)	15 → 12 ▼	8 → 9 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.6 → 1.6 =	1.4 → 1.4 =
Goals conceded per match	0.2 → 0.8 ▲	1.4 → 0.6 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1474 → 1545 (4 of 5) tougher opponents	1474 → 1523 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+2 (1705)	+14 (1520)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 20 vs 19

	Arsenal	Leeds United
days since last match	20	19
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	2 (12 pts)	5 (9 pts)
points off 1st	3	6
points off top 4	in top 4	0
points above bottom 3	9	6
matches left (incl. this one)	33	33
coach (league matches led before)	Mikel Arteta since 20 Dec 2019 · 119 matches	Daniel Farke since 4 Jul 2023 · 43 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 270 km
weather at kick-off	14 °C · 0.0 mm · 18 km/h	forecast from 10 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Arsenal 2-0-0 (n = 2)

	home		away
31 Jan 2026	Leeds United	0–4	Arsenal
23 Aug 2025	Arsenal	5–0	Leeds United

All 3 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Leeds United FC · unbeaten: 5

		now	longest in our database
Leeds United FC	unbeaten	5	8

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	10%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	14%	12%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	13%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	10%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	14%	12%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	13%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	10%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	14%	12%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	13%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%