Racing Club de Lens 2–1 Olympique Lyonnais

Ligue 1 · Matchday 6 · 9 Oct 2026 18:45 UTC · referee: Jeremy Stinat (53 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

2–1 · hit · surprise: 0.84 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

43%1 · RC Lens≈ 1 in 2.32

26%X≈ 1 in 3.85

31%2 · Olympique Lyon≈ 1 in 3.24

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side are unbeaten in their last 5 matches. The away side travel roughly 540 km. The model estimates 43% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position15 vs 2

Elo rating1580 vs 1588

Last 5WLLDL homeWDWDW away

Rest days21 vs 20

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 12% · 2–1: 9% · 1–0: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 40% vs 67%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	RC Lens	Olympique Lyon	League
League position	15th of 18 · 4 pts	2nd of 18 · 11 pts	—
Elo rating	1580	1588	—
Last 5	WLLDL	WDWDW	—
Points rate (last 10)	40%	67%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.8	2.0	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.5	1.3	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	70%	50%	52% · 39%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	6 of 10	52%
3+ goals in the match (10)	6 of 10	7 of 10	54%
Days of rest	21	20	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 45% vs 50% · league 37%

RC LensOlympique Lyonleague, year before the match · n = 288

	RC Lens	league	Olympique Lyon
Winswon the match	45%9 of 2026–66%	37%213 of 57633–41%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Scoresscored at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	72%414 of 57668–75%	80%16 of 2058–92%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	54%156 of 28848–60%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	52%151 of 28847–58%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	72%414 of 57668–75%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	30%172 of 57426–34%	45%9 of 2026–66%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 4 vs 11

RC Lens · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLLDL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

9:9goals

Olympique Lyon · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDWDW

11pts

3-2-0W-D-L

10:2goals

RC Lens · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWLWL

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

9:7goals

Olympique Lyon · Last 5 away n = 5

DWLWD

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

5:3goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 8 → 4 vs 9 → 11

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	RC Lens	Olympique Lyon
Points (of 15)	8 → 4 ▼	9 → 11 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.8 → 1.8 =	2.0 → 2.0 =
Goals conceded per match	1.2 → 1.8 ▲	2.2 → 0.4 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1544 → 1516 easier opponents	1563 → 1497 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−12 (1580)	+16 (1588)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 21 vs 20

	RC Lens	Olympique Lyon
days since last match	21	20
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	15 (4 pts)	2 (11 pts)
points off 1st	9	2
points off top 4	6	in top 4
points above bottom 3	0	7
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
coach (league matches led before)	Yannick Cahuzac since 15 Sep 2026 · 1 match new coach: what 109 measured cases show →	Paulo Fonseca since 31 Jan 2025 · 54 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 540 km
weather at kick-off	16 °C · 0.1 mm · 23 km/h	forecast from 9 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

RC Lens 3-1-1 (n = 5)

	home		away
17 May 2026	Olympique Lyon	0–4	RC Lens
16 Aug 2025	RC Lens	0–1	Olympique Lyon
4 May 2025	Olympique Lyon	1–2	RC Lens
15 Sep 2024	RC Lens	0–0	Olympique Lyon
3 Mar 2024	Olympique Lyon	0–3	RC Lens

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Racing Club de Lens · winless: 4

		now	longest in our database
Racing Club de Lens	winless	4	5
Racing Club de Lens	conceding	5	6
Olympique Lyonnais	unbeaten	5	9

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%