AC Milan 3–2 Atalanta BC

Serie A · Matchday 7 · 18 Oct 2026 16:00 UTC · referee: Daniele Chiffi (44 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

3–2 · hit · surprise: 0.99 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

37%1 · Milan≈ 1 in 2.69

28%X≈ 1 in 3.59

35%2 · Atalanta≈ 1 in 2.85

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side have scored in each of their last 9 matches. The home side last played 7 days ago, the away side 5 days ago. The model estimates 37% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position6 vs 10

Elo rating1610 vs 1600

Last 5WDDWD homeWLLLW away

Rest days7 vs 5

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 0–1: 10% · 1–0: 10%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 50% vs 47%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Milan	Atalanta	League
League position	6th of 20 · 12 pts	10th of 20 · 9 pts	—
Elo rating	1610	1600	—
Last 5	WDDWD	WLLLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	50%	47%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.6	1.2	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.3	1.2	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	47%	40%	49% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	7 of 10	6 of 10	47%
3+ goals in the match (10)	6 of 10	5 of 10	49%
Days of rest	7	5	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 40% vs 40% · league 38%

MilanAtalantaleague, year before the match · n = 384

	Milan	league	Atalanta
Winswon the match	40%8 of 2022–61%	38%293 of 76835–42%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Scoresscored at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	70%537 of 76867–73%	80%16 of 2058–92%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	49%187 of 38444–54%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	47%182 of 38442–52%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Concedesconceded at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	70%537 of 76867–73%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	15%3 of 205–36%	28%218 of 76825–32%	30%6 of 2015–52%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 9 vs 6

Milan · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDDWD

9pts

2-3-0W-D-L

9:4goals

Atalanta · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLLLW

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

6:7goals

Milan · Last 5 at home n = 5

DLLWW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

8:5goals

Atalanta · Last 5 away n = 5

LWDLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

7:10goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 6 → 9 vs 8 → 6

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Milan	Atalanta
Points (of 15)	6 → 9 ▲	8 → 6 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.4 → 1.8 ▲	1.2 → 1.2 =
Goals conceded per match	1.8 → 0.8 ▼	1.0 → 1.4 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1491 → 1501 tougher opponents	1522 → 1532 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+6 (1610)	−11 (1600)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 5

	Milan	Atalanta
days since last match	7	5
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position	6 (12 pts)	10 (9 pts)
points off 1st	7	10
points off top 4	1	4
points above bottom 3	8	5
matches left (incl. this one)	32	32
coach (league matches led before)	Ruben Amorim since 16 Jun 2026 · 6 matches	Maurizio Sarri since 15 Jun 2026 · 6 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 50 km
weather at kick-off	16 °C · 2.1 mm · 6 km/h	forecast from 18 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Milan 0-2-3 (n = 5)

	home		away
10 May 2026	Milan	2–3	Atalanta
28 Oct 2025	Atalanta	1–1	Milan
20 Apr 2025	Milan	0–1	Atalanta
6 Dec 2024	Atalanta	2–1	Milan
25 Feb 2024	Milan	1–1	Atalanta

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

AC Milan · unbeaten: 6

		now	longest in our database
AC Milan	unbeaten	6	24
AC Milan	scoring	9	22
Atalanta BC	conceding	4	7

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%