Manchester City FC 3–2 Ipswich Town FC

Premier League · Matchday 7 · 17 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC · referee: Farai Hallam (7 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

3–2 · hit · surprise: 0.14 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

87%1 · Man City≈ 1 in 1.15

10%X≈ 1 in 10.47

4%2 · Ipswich Town≈ 1 in 26.14

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side have scored in each of their last 22 matches. The home side last played 2 days ago, the away side 7 days ago. The model estimates 87% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position1 vs 10

Elo rating1708 vs 1406

Last 5WWWWW homeLLWLW away

Rest days2 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

3–0: 11% · 2–0: 9% · 4–0: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	7%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	11%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	6%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 6%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 83% vs 50%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Man City	Ipswich Town	League
League position	1st of 20 · 18 pts	10th of 20 · 9 pts	—
Elo rating	1708	1406	—
Last 5	WWWWW	LLWLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	83%	50%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	2.4	1.5	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	0.8	2.0	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	83%	—	50% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	5 of 10	4 of 6	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	4 of 6	56%
Days of rest	2	7	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 75% vs 100% · league 36%

Man CityIpswich Townleague, year before the match · n = 371

	Man City	league	Ipswich Town
Winswon the match	75%15 of 2053–89%	36%266 of 74232–39%	—
Scoresscored at least once	100%20 of 2084–100%	75%554 of 74271–78%	—
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	56%206 of 37150–61%	—
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	56%209 of 37151–61%	—
Concedesconceded at least once	55%11 of 2034–74%	75%554 of 74271–78%	—
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	30%222 of 74227–33%	—

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Ipswich Town: not enough data: 6 of 8 matches

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 15 vs 6

Man City · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWWWW

15pts

5-0-0W-D-L

14:4goals

Ipswich Town · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLWLW

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

7:11goals

Man City · Last 5 at home n = 5

WLWWW

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

12:6goals

Ipswich Town · Last 5 away

not enough data (3 of 5)

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 10 → 15 vs not enough data (6 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10) Goals scored per match 2.0 → 2.8

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Man City	Ipswich Town
Points (of 15)	10 → 15 ▲	not enough data (6 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)
Goals scored per match	2.0 → 2.8 ▲	not enough data (6 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)
Goals conceded per match	0.8 → 0.8 =	not enough data (6 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)
Average Elo of the opponents	1541 → 1536 easier opponents	not enough data (6 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)
Elo over the last 5 matches	+22 (1708)	+2 (1406)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 2 vs 7

	Man City	Ipswich Town
days since last match	2	7
matches in last 7 days	2	1
matches in last 14 days	2	1
position	1 (18 pts)	10 (9 pts)
points off 1st	0	9
points off top 4	in top 4	1
points above bottom 3	15	6
matches left (incl. this one)	32	32
coach (league matches led before)	Enzo Maresca since 29 Jun 2026 · 6 matches	Gary O'Neil since 23 Jun 2026 · 6 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 280 km
weather at kick-off	12 °C · 0.0 mm · 13 km/h	forecast from 17 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Man City 2-0-0 (n = 2)

	home		away
19 Jan 2025	Ipswich Town	0–6	Man City
24 Aug 2024	Man City	4–1	Ipswich Town

All 3 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Manchester City FC · unbeaten: 6

		now	longest in our database
Manchester City FC	unbeaten	6	32
Manchester City FC	wins in a row	6	13
Manchester City FC	scoring	22	22
Ipswich Town FC	conceding	6	19

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	7%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	11%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	6%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	7%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	11%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	6%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	7%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	11%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	6%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%