Lille OSC – Racing Club de Lens

Ligue 1 · Matchday 9 · 30 Oct 2026 20:05 UTC · Derby

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

41%1 · Lille≈ 1 in 2.46

28%X≈ 1 in 3.51

31%2 · RC Lens≈ 1 in 3.23

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

As of today, the home side have scored in each of their last 7 matches. The home side are 3rd, level on points with the leaders, with 27 matches left. The model estimates 41% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 1 league matches to play, the away side 0.

League position3 vs 6

Elo rating1597 vs 1594

Last 5WWLWD homeDLWWW away

Rest days5 vs 6

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 1–0: 11% · 0–0: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	13%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	8%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 60% vs 53%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Lille	RC Lens	League
League position	3rd of 18 · 14 pts	6th of 18 · 13 pts	—
Elo rating	1597	1594	—
Last 5	WWLWD	DLWWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	60%	53%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.2	2.0	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	0.8	1.4	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	57%	33%	52% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	4 of 10	7 of 10	53%
3+ goals in the match (10)	2 of 10	8 of 10	54%
Days of rest	5	6	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.50 vs 1.75

	Lille at home	RC Lens away
matches	4	4
scored / match	1.50league 1.63	1.75league 1.42
conceded / match	0.75league 1.42	1.75league 1.63
both scored	50%2 of 4 · league 65%	100%4 of 4 · league 65%
3+ goals	25%1 of 4 · league 65%	100%4 of 4 · league 65%
clean sheet	50%2 of 4 · league 23%	0%0 of 4 · league 18%
failed to score	0%0 of 4 · league 18%	0%0 of 4 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 60% vs 45% · league 38%

LilleRC Lensleague, year before the match · n = 281

	Lille	league	RC Lens
Winswon the match	60%12 of 2039–78%	38%212 of 56234–42%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Scoresscored at least once	90%18 of 2070–97%	72%405 of 56268–76%	85%17 of 2064–95%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	30%6 of 2015–52%	54%153 of 28149–60%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	53%149 of 28147–59%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Concedesconceded at least once	45%9 of 2026–66%	72%405 of 56268–76%	85%17 of 2064–95%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	31%172 of 56027–35%	40%8 of 2022–61%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 10 vs 10

Lille · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWLWD

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

6:3goals

RC Lens · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLWWW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

10:7goals

Lille · Last 5 at home n = 5

LDWWD

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

6:5goals

RC Lens · Last 5 away n = 5

WLDLW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

11:7goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 8 → 10 vs 6 → 10

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Lille	RC Lens
Points (of 15)	8 → 10 ▲	6 → 10 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.2 → 1.2 =	2.0 → 2.0 =
Goals conceded per match	1.0 → 0.6 ▼	1.4 → 1.4 =
Average Elo of the opponents	1526 → 1479 easier opponents	1558 → 1537 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+3 (1597)	+9 (1594)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 5 vs 6

	Lille	RC Lens
days since last match	5	6
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	3	3
position today	3 (14 pts)	6 (13 pts)
points off 1st	0	1
points off top 4	in top 4	1
points above bottom 3	8	7
matches left (incl. this one)	26	26
simulator impact	72 pp	72 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Davide Ancelotti since 1 Jun 2026 · 7 matches	Yannick Cahuzac since 15 Sep 2026 · 4 matches new coach: what 109 measured cases show →
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 30 km

Derby: Derby du Nord.

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Lille 4-0-1 (n = 5)

	home		away
4 Apr 2026	Lille	3–0	RC Lens
20 Sep 2025	RC Lens	3–0	Lille
30 Mar 2025	Lille	1–0	RC Lens
26 Oct 2024	RC Lens	0–2	Lille
29 Mar 2024	Lille	2–1	RC Lens

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Lille OSC · scoring: 7

		now	longest in our database
Lille OSC	scoring	7	10
Racing Club de Lens	unbeaten	3	11
Racing Club de Lens	wins in a row	3	8
Racing Club de Lens	scoring	5	19
Racing Club de Lens	conceding	8	8
Racing Club de Lens	both teams score	5	5
Racing Club de Lens	3+ goals	5	6

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	13%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	8%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	13%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	8%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	13%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	8%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%