Lille OSC 1–1 Stade Brestois 29

Ligue 1 · Matchday 7 · 17 Oct 2026 18:45 UTC · referee: Clément Turpin (56 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–1 · miss · surprise: 1.46 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

60%1 · Lille≈ 1 in 1.68

23%X≈ 1 in 4.29

17%2 · Brest≈ 1 in 5.87

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side have scored in each of their last 6 matches. The home side last played 3 days ago, the away side 7 days ago. The model estimates 60% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position2 vs 8

Elo rating1599 vs 1498

Last 5DWWLW homeDWLLW away

Rest days3 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–0: 12% · 1–1: 11% · 2–0: 11%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	11%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	7%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 67% vs 30%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Lille	Brest	League
League position	2nd of 18 · 13 pts	8th of 18 · 8 pts	—
Elo rating	1599	1498	—
Last 5	DWWLW	DWLLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	67%	30%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.2	1.4	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	0.7	1.7	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	57%	30%	53% · 39%
Both teams score (10)	3 of 10	7 of 10	53%
3+ goals in the match (10)	2 of 10	7 of 10	55%
Days of rest	3	7	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 60% vs 30% · league 37%

LilleBrestleague, year before the match · n = 299

	Lille	league	Brest
Winswon the match	60%12 of 2039–78%	37%223 of 59834–41%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	72%432 of 59869–76%	75%15 of 2053–89%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	30%6 of 2015–52%	55%164 of 29949–60%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	35%7 of 2018–57%	53%158 of 29947–58%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Concedesconceded at least once	40%8 of 2022–61%	72%432 of 59869–76%	80%16 of 2058–92%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	30%178 of 59626–34%	30%6 of 2015–52%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 10 vs 7

Lille · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DWWLW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

7:4goals

Brest · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DWLLW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

10:7goals

Lille · Last 5 at home n = 5

DLDWW

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

6:5goals

Brest · Last 5 away n = 5

LLDWL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

5:10goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 10 → 10 vs 2 → 7

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Lille	Brest
Points (of 15)	10 → 10 =	2 → 7 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.0 → 1.4 ▲	0.8 → 2.0 ▲
Goals conceded per match	0.6 → 0.8 ▲	2.0 → 1.4 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1483 → 1522 tougher opponents	1546 (4 of 5) → 1509 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+6 (1599)	+3 (1498)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 3 vs 7

	Lille	Brest
days since last match	3	7
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	2	1
position	2 (13 pts)	8 (8 pts)
points off 1st	1	6
points off top 4	in top 4	3
points above bottom 3	7	2
matches left (incl. this one)	28	28
coach (league matches led before)	Davide Ancelotti since 1 Jun 2026 · 6 matches	unconfirmed
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 600 km
weather at kick-off	11 °C · 0.0 mm · 12 km/h	forecast from 17 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Lille 1-3-1 (n = 5)

	home		away
14 Feb 2026	Lille	1–1	Brest
17 Aug 2025	Brest	3–3	Lille
10 May 2025	Brest	2–0	Lille
6 Dec 2024	Lille	3–1	Brest
17 Mar 2024	Brest	1–1	Lille

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Lille OSC · scoring: 6

		now	longest in our database
Lille OSC	scoring	6	10
Stade Brestois 29	conceding	15	15

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	11%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	7%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	11%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	7%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	11%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	7%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%