US Lecce 1–2 Bologna FC 1909

Serie A · Matchday 6 · 11 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC · referee: Luca Pairetto (40 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–2 · hit · surprise: 0.65 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

20%1 · Lecce≈ 1 in 4.93

28%X≈ 1 in 3.60

52%2 · Bologna≈ 1 in 1.92

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side are winless in their last 6 matches. The home side last played 20 days ago, the away side 22 days ago. The model estimates 52% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position12 vs 19

Elo rating1415 vs 1533

Last 5WLLWL homeLLDLD away

Rest days20 vs 22

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

0–1: 16% · 1–1: 12% · 0–0: 11%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	16%	11%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	3%	5%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 53% vs 33%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Lecce	Bologna	League
League position	12th of 20 · 6 pts	19th of 20 · 2 pts	—
Elo rating	1415	1533	—
Last 5	WLLWL	LLDLD	—
Points rate (last 10)	53%	33%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.1	1.0	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.4	1.3	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	47%	60%	48% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	3 of 10	4 of 10	46%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 10	3 of 10	48%
Days of rest	20	22	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 40% vs 40% · league 38%

LecceBolognaleague, year before the match · n = 374

	Lecce	league	Bologna
Winswon the match	40%8 of 2022–61%	38%283 of 74834–41%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Scoresscored at least once	55%11 of 2034–74%	69%516 of 74866–72%	60%12 of 2039–78%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	48%179 of 37443–53%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	46%173 of 37441–51%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	69%516 of 74866–72%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	25%5 of 2011–47%	28%211 of 74825–32%	30%6 of 2015–52%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 6 vs 2

Lecce · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLLWL

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

5:10goals

Bologna · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLDLD

2pts

0-2-3W-D-L

3:6goals

Lecce · Last 5 at home n = 5

DLWLW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

5:8goals

Bologna · Last 5 away n = 5

LWWLL

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

4:6goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 10 → 6 vs 8 → 2

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Lecce	Bologna
Points (of 15)	10 → 6 ▼	8 → 2 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.2 → 1.0 ▼	1.4 → 0.6 ▼
Goals conceded per match	0.8 → 2.0 ▲	1.4 → 1.2 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1473 → 1499 tougher opponents	1601 → 1543 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	±0 (1415)	−16 (1533)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 20 vs 22

	Lecce	Bologna
days since last match	20	22
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	12 (6 pts)	19 (2 pts)
points off 1st	10	14
points off top 4	6	10
points above bottom 3	2	bottom 3 · 2 off 17th
matches left (incl. this one)	33	33
coach (league matches led before)	Eusebio Di Francesco since 26 Jun 2025 · 43 matches	unconfirmed
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 730 km
weather at kick-off	21 °C · 0.0 mm · 14 km/h	forecast from 11 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Lecce 0-2-3 (n = 5)

	home		away
12 Apr 2026	Bologna	2–0	Lecce
28 Sep 2025	Lecce	2–2	Bologna
9 Feb 2025	Lecce	0–0	Bologna
2 Nov 2024	Bologna	1–0	Lecce
11 Feb 2024	Bologna	4–0	Lecce

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

US Lecce · conceding: 4

		now	longest in our database
US Lecce	conceding	4	23
Bologna FC 1909	winless	6	7
Bologna FC 1909	conceding	6	13

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	16%	11%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	3%	5%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	16%	11%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	3%	5%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	16%	11%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	3%	5%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%