Stade Brestois 29 5–1 Angers SCO

Ligue 1 · Matchday 6 · 10 Oct 2026 18:45 UTC · referee: Eric Wattellier (56 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

5–1 · hit · surprise: 0.71 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

49%1 · Brest≈ 1 in 2.04

28%X≈ 1 in 3.59

23%2 · Angers SCO≈ 1 in 4.33

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side took 5 points from their last 5 matches, the away side 7 from their last 5. The away side travel roughly 310 km. The model estimates 49% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position12 vs 8

Elo rating1492 vs 1444

Last 5DDWLL homeLWLDW away

Rest days20 vs 21

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–0: 13% · 1–1: 13% · 0–0: 10%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	10%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	13%	13%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 23% vs 33%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Brest	Angers SCO	League
League position	12th of 18 · 5 pts	8th of 18 · 7 pts	—
Elo rating	1492	1444	—
Last 5	DDWLL	LWLDW	—
Points rate (last 10)	23%	33%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.2	1.0	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.9	1.4	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	40%	30%	52% · 39%
Both teams score (10)	7 of 10	6 of 10	52%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	4 of 10	54%
Days of rest	20	21	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 25% vs 25% · league 37%

BrestAngers SCOleague, year before the match · n = 290

	Brest	league	Angers SCO
Winswon the match	25%5 of 2011–47%	37%215 of 58033–41%	25%5 of 2011–47%
Scoresscored at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	72%417 of 58068–75%	60%12 of 2039–78%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	54%157 of 29048–60%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	52%152 of 29047–58%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	72%417 of 58068–75%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	30%6 of 2015–52%	30%174 of 57827–34%	10%2 of 203–30%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 5 vs 7

Brest · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DDWLL

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

7:8goals

Angers SCO · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWLDW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

6:5goals

Brest · Last 5 at home n = 5

DLDDL

3pts

0-3-2W-D-L

7:9goals

Angers SCO · Last 5 away n = 5

LLDWD

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

6:7goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 2 → 5 vs 3 → 7

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Brest	Angers SCO
Points (of 15)	2 → 5 ▲	3 → 7 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.0 → 1.4 ▲	0.8 → 1.2 ▲
Goals conceded per match	2.2 → 1.6 ▼	1.8 → 1.0 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1554 → 1525 (4 of 5) easier opponents	1526 → 1507 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−3 (1492)	+8 (1444)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 20 vs 21

	Brest	Angers SCO
days since last match	20	21
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	12 (5 pts)	8 (7 pts)
points off 1st	8	6
points off top 4	5	3
points above bottom 3	1	3
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
coach (league matches led before)	unconfirmed	Stéphane Gilli since 9 Jun 2026 · 5 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 310 km
weather at kick-off	14 °C · 0.0 mm · 7 km/h	forecast from 10 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Brest 2-1-1 (n = 4)

	home		away
17 May 2026	Brest	1–1	Angers SCO
28 Sep 2025	Angers SCO	0–2	Brest
9 Mar 2025	Brest	2–0	Angers SCO
5 Jan 2025	Angers SCO	2–0	Brest

All 5 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Stade Brestois 29 · conceding: 14

		now	longest in our database
Stade Brestois 29	conceding	14	14

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	10%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	13%	13%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	10%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	13%	13%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	10%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	13%	13%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%