Valencia CF – Real Madrid CF

La Liga · Matchday 12 · 7 Nov 2026 20:00 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

17%1 · Valencia≈ 1 in 5.92

23%X≈ 1 in 4.26

60%2 · Real Madrid≈ 1 in 1.68

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

As of today, the away side have scored in each of their last 5 matches. The home side last played 6 days ago, the away side 3 days ago. The model estimates 60% for an away win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 1 league matches to play, the away side 2.

League position19 vs 3

Elo rating1481 vs 1720

Last 5WLDDL homeWWLWW away

Rest days6 vs 3

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

0–1: 11% · 0–2: 11% · 1–1: 11%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	11%	11%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
1	5%	11%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	3%	5%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 20% vs 80%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Valencia	Real Madrid	League
League position	19th of 20 · 6 pts	3rd of 20 · 21 pts	—
Elo rating	1481	1720	—
Last 5	WLDDL	WWLWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	20%	80%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	0.7	2.7	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.7	1.1	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	30%	53%	56% · 36%
Both teams score (10)	4 of 10	7 of 10	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 10	8 of 10	51%
Days of rest	6	3	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 6 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 0.50 vs 1.50

	Valencia at home	Real Madrid away
matches	6	4
scored / match	0.50league 1.69	1.50league 1.35
conceded / match	1.83league 1.35	1.50league 1.69
both scored	33%2 of 6 · league 60%	75%3 of 4 · league 60%
3+ goals	50%3 of 6 · league 56%	75%3 of 4 · league 56%
clean sheet	33%2 of 6 · league 30%	0%0 of 4 · league 19%
failed to score	67%4 of 6 · league 19%	25%1 of 4 · league 30%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 30% vs 70% · league 38%

ValenciaReal Madridleague, year before the match · n = 364

	Valencia	league	Real Madrid
Winswon the match	30%6 of 2015–52%	38%273 of 72834–41%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Scoresscored at least once	65%13 of 2043–82%	76%554 of 72873–79%	90%18 of 2070–97%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	51%187 of 36446–56%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	57%209 of 36452–62%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	76%554 of 72873–79%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	20%4 of 208–42%	28%203 of 72825–31%	50%10 of 2030–70%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 5 vs 12

Valencia · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLDDL

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

6:7goals

Real Madrid · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWLWW

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

13:6goals

Valencia · Last 5 at home n = 5

LLLDL

1pts

0-1-4W-D-L

3:11goals

Real Madrid · Last 5 away n = 5

WWLWL

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

7:6goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 1 → 5 vs 12 → 12

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Valencia	Real Madrid
Points (of 15)	1 → 5 ▲	12 → 12 =
Goals scored per match	0.2 → 1.2 ▲	2.8 → 2.6 ▼
Goals conceded per match	2.0 → 1.4 ▼	1.0 → 1.2 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1559 → 1517 easier opponents	1513 → 1534 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−4 (1481)	+6 (1720)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 6 vs 3

	Valencia	Real Madrid
days since last match	6	3
matches in last 7 days	1	2
matches in last 14 days	1	3
position today	19 (6 pts)	3 (21 pts)
points off 1st	21	6
points off top 4	13	in top 4
points above bottom 3	bottom 3 · 3 off 17th	13
matches left (incl. this one)	27	27
coach (league matches led before)	unconfirmed	Álvaro Arbeloa since 13 Jan 2026 · 28 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 300 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Valencia 1-1-3 (n = 5)

	home		away
8 Feb 2026	Valencia	0–2	Real Madrid
1 Nov 2025	Real Madrid	4–0	Valencia
5 Apr 2025	Real Madrid	1–2	Valencia
3 Jan 2025	Valencia	1–2	Real Madrid
2 Mar 2024	Valencia	2–2	Real Madrid

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Valencia CF · winless: 4

		now	longest in our database
Valencia CF	winless	4	12
Real Madrid CF	scoring	5	27

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	11%	11%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
1	5%	11%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	3%	5%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	11%	11%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
1	5%	11%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	3%	5%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	11%	11%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
1	5%	11%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	3%	5%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%