Udinese Calcio – AS Roma

Serie A · Matchday 10 · 31 Oct 2026 17:00 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

16%1 · Udinese≈ 1 in 6.15

23%X≈ 1 in 4.30

60%2 · Roma≈ 1 in 1.65

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

As of today, the away side are unbeaten in their last 15 matches. The away side travel roughly 470 km. The model estimates 60% for an away win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 2 league matches to play, the away side 1.

League position18 vs 3

Elo rating1457 vs 1651

Last 5LLLLL homeWDDWD away

Rest days2 vs 3

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

0–1: 13% · 0–2: 12% · 1–1: 11%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	13%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	2%	4%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 23% vs 80%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Udinese	Roma	League
League position	18th of 20 · 4 pts	3rd of 20 · 18 pts	—
Elo rating	1457	1651	—
Last 5	LLLLL	WDDWD	—
Points rate (last 10)	23%	80%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.1	2.3	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.8	0.6	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	27%	57%	48% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	5 of 10	3 of 10	47%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 10	5 of 10	50%
Days of rest	2	3	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 0.50 vs 2.25

	Udinese at home	Roma away
matches	4	4
scored / match	0.50league 1.59	2.25league 1.41
conceded / match	1.75league 1.41	0.75league 1.59
both scored	50%2 of 4 · league 57%	25%1 of 4 · league 57%
3+ goals	50%2 of 4 · league 60%	50%2 of 4 · league 60%
clean sheet	0%0 of 4 · league 23%	75%3 of 4 · league 21%
failed to score	50%2 of 4 · league 21%	25%1 of 4 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 30% vs 60% · league 39%

UdineseRomaleague, year before the match · n = 365

	Udinese	league	Roma
Winswon the match	30%6 of 2015–52%	39%284 of 73035–42%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Scoresscored at least once	60%12 of 2039–78%	70%513 of 73067–73%	95%19 of 2076–99%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	50%182 of 36545–55%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	35%7 of 2018–57%	47%172 of 36542–52%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Concedesconceded at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	70%513 of 73067–73%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	35%7 of 2018–57%	29%210 of 73026–32%	55%11 of 2034–74%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 0 vs 9

Udinese · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLLLL

0pts

0-0-5W-D-L

5:13goals

Roma · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDDWD

9pts

2-3-0W-D-L

9:5goals

Udinese · Last 5 at home n = 5

LDLLL

1pts

0-1-4W-D-L

2:8goals

Roma · Last 5 away n = 5

WWWDD

11pts

3-2-0W-D-L

11:3goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 0 vs 15 → 9

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Udinese	Roma
Points (of 15)	7 → 0 ▼	15 → 9 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.2 → 1.0 ▼	2.8 → 1.8 ▼
Goals conceded per match	1.0 → 2.6 ▲	0.2 → 1.0 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1495 → 1525 tougher opponents	1498 → 1577 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−29 (1457)	+9 (1651)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 2 vs 3

	Udinese	Roma
days since last match	2	3
matches in last 7 days	2	1
matches in last 14 days	3	4
position today	18 (4 pts)	3 (18 pts)
points off 1st	18	4
points off top 4	13	in top 4
points above bottom 3	bottom 3 · 0 off 17th	14
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
simulator impact	35 pp	35 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Kosta Runjaić since 1 Jul 2024 · 83 matches	Gian Piero Gasperini since 6 Jun 2025 · 46 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 470 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Udinese 1-0-4 (n = 5)

	home		away
2 Feb 2026	Udinese	1–0	Roma
9 Nov 2025	Roma	2–0	Udinese
26 Jan 2025	Udinese	1–2	Roma
22 Sep 2024	Roma	3–0	Udinese
25 Apr 2024	Udinese	1–2	Roma

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Udinese Calcio · winless: 5

		now	longest in our database
Udinese Calcio	winless	5	10
Udinese Calcio	conceding	9	11
AS Roma	unbeaten	15	19

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	13%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	2%	4%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	13%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	2%	4%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	13%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	2%	4%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%