Torino FC – US Lecce

Serie A · Matchday 11 · 7 Nov 2026 14:00 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

48%1 · Torino≈ 1 in 2.06

28%X≈ 1 in 3.56

23%2 · Lecce≈ 1 in 4.26

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

As of today, the home side are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. The away side travel roughly 1010 km. The model estimates 48% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 2 league matches to play, the away side 3.

League position7 vs 12

Elo rating1486 vs 1422

Last 5LDWWW homeLWLLW away

Rest days6 vs 5

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–0: 14% · 1–1: 13% · 0–0: 11%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	14%	13%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 47% vs 50%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Torino	Lecce	League
League position	7th of 20 · 13 pts	12th of 20 · 9 pts	—
Elo rating	1486	1422	—
Last 5	LDWWW	LWLLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	47%	50%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.6	1.3	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.5	1.5	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	67%	43%	49% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	8 of 10	3 of 10	47%
3+ goals in the match (10)	8 of 10	6 of 10	50%
Days of rest	6	5	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.50 vs 1.25

	Torino at home	Lecce away
matches	4	4
scored / match	1.50league 1.59	1.25league 1.41
conceded / match	1.75league 1.41	1.00league 1.59
both scored	75%3 of 4 · league 57%	0%0 of 4 · league 57%
3+ goals	75%3 of 4 · league 60%	50%2 of 4 · league 60%
clean sheet	0%0 of 4 · league 23%	50%2 of 4 · league 21%
failed to score	25%1 of 4 · league 21%	50%2 of 4 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 45% vs 35% · league 39%

TorinoLecceleague, year before the match · n = 355

	Torino	league	Lecce
Winswon the match	45%9 of 2026–66%	39%276 of 71035–43%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Scoresscored at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	70%499 of 71067–74%	55%11 of 2034–74%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	50%177 of 35545–55%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	47%167 of 35542–52%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	70%499 of 71067–74%	80%16 of 2058–92%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	15%3 of 205–36%	29%205 of 71026–32%	30%6 of 2015–52%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 10 vs 6

Torino · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LDWWW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

9:6goals

Lecce · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWLLW

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

7:8goals

Torino · Last 5 at home n = 5

DLLWW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

8:9goals

Lecce · Last 5 away n = 5

WWLLW

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

8:6goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 4 → 10 vs 9 → 6

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Torino	Lecce
Points (of 15)	4 → 10 ▲	9 → 6 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.4 → 1.8 ▲	1.2 → 1.4 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.8 → 1.2 ▼	1.4 → 1.6 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1523 → 1496 easier opponents	1530 → 1484 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+13 (1486)	+4 (1422)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 6 vs 5

	Torino	Lecce
days since last match	6	5
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	2	3
position today	7 (13 pts)	12 (9 pts)
points off 1st	9	13
points off top 4	4	8
points above bottom 3	9	5
matches left (incl. this one)	28	28
coach (league matches led before)	Ignazio Abate since 12 Jun 2026 · 8 matches	Eusebio Di Francesco since 26 Jun 2025 · 45 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 1010 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Torino 2-1-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
1 Feb 2026	Torino	1–0	Lecce
30 Nov 2025	Lecce	2–1	Torino
18 May 2025	Lecce	1–0	Torino
15 Sep 2024	Torino	0–0	Lecce
16 Feb 2024	Torino	2–0	Lecce

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Torino FC · unbeaten: 4

		now	longest in our database
Torino FC	unbeaten	4	7
Torino FC	wins in a row	3	3
Torino FC	scoring	4	12
Torino FC	3+ goals	3	6
US Lecce	3+ goals	4	4

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	14%	13%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	14%	13%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	14%	13%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%