RC Strasbourg Alsace 1–3 Paris Saint-Germain FC

Ligue 1 · Matchday 7 · 17 Oct 2026 15:15 UTC · referee: Willy Delajod (59 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–3 · hit · surprise: 0.64 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

25%1 · Strasbourg≈ 1 in 4.01

22%X≈ 1 in 4.50

53%2 · PSG≈ 1 in 1.89

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 26 matches. The home side last played 6 days ago, the away side 2 days ago. The model estimates 53% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position12 vs 6

Elo rating1544 vs 1714

Last 5WWDLL homeDLWWW away

Rest days6 vs 2

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 10% · 1–2: 9% · 0–2: 7%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	4%	10%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	3%	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	1%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 47% vs 60%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Strasbourg	PSG	League
League position	12th of 18 · 7 pts	6th of 18 · 11 pts	—
Elo rating	1544	1714	—
Last 5	WWDLL	DLWWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	47%	60%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	2.0	1.7	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	2.0	1.2	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	50%	67%	53% · 39%
Both teams score (10)	9 of 10	7 of 10	53%
3+ goals in the match (10)	8 of 10	7 of 10	55%
Days of rest	6	2	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 40% vs 60% · league 37%

StrasbourgPSGleague, year before the match · n = 298

	Strasbourg	league	PSG
Winswon the match	40%8 of 2022–61%	37%222 of 59633–41%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Scoresscored at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	72%430 of 59668–76%	100%20 of 2084–100%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	75%15 of 2053–89%	55%163 of 29849–60%	80%16 of 2058–92%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	80%16 of 2058–92%	53%157 of 29847–58%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Concedesconceded at least once	90%18 of 2070–97%	72%430 of 59668–76%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	30%6 of 2015–52%	30%177 of 59426–34%	55%11 of 2034–74%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 7 vs 10

Strasbourg · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWDLL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

11:8goals

PSG · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLWWW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

9:6goals

Strasbourg · Last 5 at home n = 5

LLWWD

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

9:11goals

PSG · Last 5 away n = 5

LDDWW

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

8:7goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 7 vs 8 → 10

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Strasbourg	PSG
Points (of 15)	7 → 7 =	8 → 10 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.8 → 2.2 ▲	1.6 → 1.8 ▲
Goals conceded per match	2.4 → 1.6 ▼	1.2 → 1.2 =
Average Elo of the opponents	1517 → 1542 tougher opponents	1523 → 1549 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+5 (1544)	+1 (1714)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 6 vs 2

	Strasbourg	PSG
days since last match	6	2
matches in last 7 days	1	2
matches in last 14 days	1	2
position	12 (7 pts)	6 (11 pts)
points off 1st	7	3
points off top 4	4	0
points above bottom 3	1	5
matches left (incl. this one)	28	28
coach (league matches led before)	Hugo Oliveira since 15 Jul 2026 · 6 matches	Luis Enrique since 5 Jul 2023 · 108 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 410 km
weather at kick-off	13 °C · 0.1 mm · 7 km/h	forecast from 17 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Strasbourg 1-1-3 (n = 5)

	home		away
1 Feb 2026	Strasbourg	1–2	PSG
17 Oct 2025	PSG	3–3	Strasbourg
3 May 2025	Strasbourg	2–1	PSG
19 Oct 2024	PSG	4–2	Strasbourg
2 Feb 2024	Strasbourg	1–2	PSG

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

RC Strasbourg Alsace · winless: 3

		now	longest in our database
RC Strasbourg Alsace	winless	3	8
RC Strasbourg Alsace	scoring	5	16
RC Strasbourg Alsace	conceding	14	15
RC Strasbourg Alsace	both teams score	5	11
Paris Saint-Germain FC	unbeaten	3	32
Paris Saint-Germain FC	wins in a row	3	10
Paris Saint-Germain FC	scoring	26	26

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	4%	10%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	3%	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	1%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	4%	10%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	3%	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	1%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	4%	10%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	3%	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	1%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%