Stade Rennais FC 1901 4–1 AJ Auxerre

Ligue 1 · Matchday 6 · 11 Oct 2026 15:15 UTC · referee: Willy Delajod (59 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

4–1 · hit · surprise: 0.56 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

57%1 · Stade Rennais≈ 1 in 1.75

22%X≈ 1 in 4.48

21%2 · Auxerre≈ 1 in 4.84

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 10 matches. The away side travel roughly 400 km. The model estimates 57% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position6 vs 14

Elo rating1554 vs 1471

Last 5DWWWL homeLLLWW away

Rest days21 vs 21

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 10% · 2–1: 10% · 2–0: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 63% vs 53%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Stade Rennais	Auxerre	League
League position	6th of 18 · 10 pts	14th of 18 · 6 pts	—
Elo rating	1554	1471	—
Last 5	DWWWL	LLLWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	63%	53%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.8	1.8	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.8	1.9	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	77%	33%	53% · 38%
Both teams score (10)	7 of 10	8 of 10	53%
3+ goals in the match (10)	9 of 10	8 of 10	55%
Days of rest	21	21	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 60% vs 35% · league 37%

Stade RennaisAuxerreleague, year before the match · n = 295

	Stade Rennais	league	Auxerre
Winswon the match	60%12 of 2039–78%	37%219 of 59033–41%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Scoresscored at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	72%426 of 59068–76%	70%14 of 2048–85%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	85%17 of 2064–95%	55%161 of 29549–60%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	53%156 of 29547–59%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Concedesconceded at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	72%426 of 59068–76%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	30%177 of 58827–34%	25%5 of 2011–47%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 10 vs 6

Stade Rennais · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DWWWL

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

8:9goals

Auxerre · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLLWW

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

7:12goals

Stade Rennais · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWDWW

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

10:6goals

Auxerre · Last 5 away n = 5

DLWLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

9:13goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 9 → 10 vs 10 → 6

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Stade Rennais	Auxerre
Points (of 15)	9 → 10 ▲	10 → 6 ▼
Goals scored per match	2.0 → 1.6 ▼	2.2 → 1.4 ▼
Goals conceded per match	1.8 → 1.8 =	1.4 → 2.4 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1521 → 1561 tougher opponents	1542 → 1517 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+6 (1554)	−9 (1471)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 21 vs 21

	Stade Rennais	Auxerre
days since last match	21	21
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	6 (10 pts)	14 (6 pts)
points off 1st	4	8
points off top 4	1	5
points above bottom 3	6	2
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
coach (league matches led before)	Franck Haise since 18 Feb 2026 · 17 matches	Will Still since 12 Jun 2026 · 5 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 400 km
weather at kick-off	16 °C · 0.2 mm · 8 km/h	forecast from 11 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Stade Rennais 1-1-2 (n = 4)

	home		away
22 Feb 2026	Auxerre	0–3	Stade Rennais
19 Oct 2025	Stade Rennais	2–2	Auxerre
6 Apr 2025	Stade Rennais	0–1	Auxerre
3 Nov 2024	Auxerre	4–0	Stade Rennais

All 5 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

AJ Auxerre · scoring: 10

		now	longest in our database
AJ Auxerre	scoring	10	12

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%