US Sassuolo Calcio 1–1 AC Milan

Serie A · Matchday 6 · 11 Oct 2026 16:00 UTC · referee: Francesco Fourneau (30 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–1 · miss · surprise: 1.36 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

27%1 · Sassuolo≈ 1 in 3.77

26%X≈ 1 in 3.88

48%2 · Milan≈ 1 in 2.09

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 8 matches. The home side last played 22 days ago, the away side 20 days ago. The model estimates 48% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position10 vs 5

Elo rating1462 vs 1612

Last 5LWDWL homeWWDDW away

Rest days22 vs 20

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 12% · 0–1: 11% · 1–2: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	11%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 37% vs 50%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Sassuolo	Milan	League
League position	10th of 20 · 7 pts	5th of 20 · 11 pts	—
Elo rating	1462	1612	—
Last 5	LWDWL	WWDDW	—
Points rate (last 10)	37%	50%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.4	1.5	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.5	1.2	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	70%	57%	48% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	7 of 10	6 of 10	47%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	6 of 10	48%
Days of rest	22	20	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 40% vs 45% · league 38%

SassuoloMilanleague, year before the match · n = 376

	Sassuolo	league	Milan
Winswon the match	40%8 of 2022–61%	38%285 of 75235–41%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Scoresscored at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	69%520 of 75266–72%	70%14 of 2048–85%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	75%15 of 2053–89%	48%181 of 37643–53%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	47%175 of 37642–52%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Concedesconceded at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	69%520 of 75266–72%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	25%5 of 2011–47%	28%213 of 75225–32%	20%4 of 208–42%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 7 vs 11

Sassuolo · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWDWL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

9:9goals

Milan · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWDDW

11pts

3-2-0W-D-L

10:4goals

Sassuolo · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWLWW

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

11:7goals

Milan · Last 5 away n = 5

LWWDD

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

7:7goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 4 → 7 vs 4 → 11

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Sassuolo	Milan
Points (of 15)	4 → 7 ▲	4 → 11 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.0 → 1.8 ▲	1.0 → 2.0 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.2 → 1.8 ▲	1.6 → 0.8 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1496 → 1523 tougher opponents	1523 → 1503 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+5 (1462)	+12 (1612)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 22 vs 20

	Sassuolo	Milan
days since last match	22	20
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	10 (7 pts)	5 (11 pts)
points off 1st	9	5
points off top 4	5	1
points above bottom 3	3	7
matches left (incl. this one)	33	33
coach (league matches led before)	unconfirmed	Ruben Amorim since 16 Jun 2026 · 5 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 150 km
weather at kick-off	23 °C · 0.0 mm · 5 km/h	forecast from 11 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Sassuolo 1-2-1 (n = 4)

	home		away
3 May 2026	Sassuolo	2–0	Milan
14 Dec 2025	Milan	2–2	Sassuolo
14 Apr 2024	Sassuolo	3–3	Milan
30 Dec 2023	Milan	1–0	Sassuolo

All 5 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

US Sassuolo Calcio · scoring: 5

		now	longest in our database
US Sassuolo Calcio	scoring	5	8
US Sassuolo Calcio	conceding	8	18
US Sassuolo Calcio	both teams score	5	8
US Sassuolo Calcio	3+ goals	5	7
AC Milan	unbeaten	5	24
AC Milan	scoring	8	22

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	11%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	11%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	11%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	4%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%