AS Roma – US Sassuolo Calcio

Serie A · Matchday 11 · 7 Nov 2026 19:45 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

64%1 · Roma≈ 1 in 1.57

22%X≈ 1 in 4.64

15%2 · Sassuolo≈ 1 in 6.74

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

As of today, the home side are unbeaten in their last 15 matches. The home side last played 3 days ago, the away side 5 days ago. The model estimates 64% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 2 league matches to play, the away side 2.

League position3 vs 14

Elo rating1651 vs 1454

Last 5WDDWD homeWLDLL away

Rest days3 vs 5

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–0: 12% · 2–0: 12% · 1–1: 10%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 80% vs 27%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Roma	Sassuolo	League
League position	3rd of 20 · 18 pts	14th of 20 · 8 pts	—
Elo rating	1651	1454	—
Last 5	WDDWD	WLDLL	—
Points rate (last 10)	80%	27%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	2.3	1.4	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	0.6	2.0	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	80%	10%	49% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	3 of 10	8 of 10	47%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 10	7 of 10	50%
Days of rest	3	5	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 5

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 2.50 vs 1.20

	Roma at home	Sassuolo away
matches	4	5
scored / match	2.50league 1.59	1.20league 1.41
conceded / match	0.75league 1.41	2.40league 1.59
both scored	50%2 of 4 · league 57%	80%4 of 5 · league 57%
3+ goals	75%3 of 4 · league 60%	80%4 of 5 · league 60%
clean sheet	50%2 of 4 · league 23%	0%0 of 5 · league 21%
failed to score	0%0 of 4 · league 21%	20%1 of 5 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 60% vs 30% · league 39%

RomaSassuololeague, year before the match · n = 355

	Roma	league	Sassuolo
Winswon the match	60%12 of 2039–78%	39%276 of 71035–43%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	95%19 of 2076–99%	70%499 of 71067–74%	80%16 of 2058–92%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	50%177 of 35545–55%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	47%167 of 35542–52%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Concedesconceded at least once	45%9 of 2026–66%	70%499 of 71067–74%	90%18 of 2070–97%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	29%205 of 71026–32%	20%4 of 208–42%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 9 vs 4

Roma · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDDWD

9pts

2-3-0W-D-L

9:5goals

Sassuolo · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLDLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

7:11goals

Roma · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWWDW

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

12:3goals

Sassuolo · Last 5 away n = 5

LDLLL

1pts

0-1-4W-D-L

6:12goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 15 → 9 vs 4 → 4

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Roma	Sassuolo
Points (of 15)	15 → 9 ▼	4 → 4 =
Goals scored per match	2.8 → 1.8 ▼	1.4 → 1.4 =
Goals conceded per match	0.2 → 1.0 ▲	1.8 → 2.2 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1498 → 1577 tougher opponents	1496 → 1535 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+9 (1651)	−8 (1454)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 3 vs 5

	Roma	Sassuolo
days since last match	3	5
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	3	2
position today	3 (18 pts)	14 (8 pts)
points off 1st	4	14
points off top 4	in top 4	9
points above bottom 3	14	4
matches left (incl. this one)	28	28
coach (league matches led before)	Gian Piero Gasperini since 6 Jun 2025 · 46 matches	unconfirmed
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 340 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Roma 4-0-0 (n = 4)

	home		away
10 Jan 2026	Roma	2–0	Sassuolo
26 Oct 2025	Sassuolo	0–1	Roma
17 Mar 2024	Roma	1–0	Sassuolo
3 Dec 2023	Sassuolo	1–2	Roma

All 4 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

AS Roma · unbeaten: 15

		now	longest in our database
AS Roma	unbeaten	15	19
US Sassuolo Calcio	winless	4	8
US Sassuolo Calcio	conceding	11	18

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%