AS Roma – Cagliari Calcio

Serie A · Matchday 9 · 27 Oct 2026 19:45 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

66%1 · Roma≈ 1 in 1.51

22%X≈ 1 in 4.62

12%2 · Cagliari≈ 1 in 8.40

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are unbeaten in their last 15 matches. The away side travel roughly 410 km. The model estimates 66% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position3 vs 8

Elo rating1651 vs 1443

Last 5WDDWD homeWWDLL away

Rest days3 vs 3

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–0: 15% · 2–0: 14% · 1–1: 10%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	15%	10%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	14%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	9%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 80% vs 63%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Roma	Cagliari	League
League position	3rd of 20 · 18 pts	8th of 20 · 13 pts	—
Elo rating	1651	1443	—
Last 5	WDDWD	WWDLL	—
Points rate (last 10)	80%	63%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	2.3	1.0	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	0.6	1.1	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	80%	47%	49% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	3 of 10	4 of 10	47%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 10	4 of 10	50%
Days of rest	3	3	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 2.50 vs 1.00

	Roma at home	Cagliari away
matches	4	4
scored / match	2.50league 1.59	1.00league 1.41
conceded / match	0.75league 1.41	1.25league 1.59
both scored	50%2 of 4 · league 57%	25%1 of 4 · league 57%
3+ goals	75%3 of 4 · league 60%	50%2 of 4 · league 60%
clean sheet	50%2 of 4 · league 23%	50%2 of 4 · league 21%
failed to score	0%0 of 4 · league 21%	25%1 of 4 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 60% vs 40% · league 39%

RomaCagliarileague, year before the match · n = 375

	Roma	league	Cagliari
Winswon the match	60%12 of 2039–78%	39%291 of 75035–42%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Scoresscored at least once	95%19 of 2076–99%	70%526 of 75067–73%	65%13 of 2043–82%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	50%187 of 37545–55%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	47%177 of 37542–52%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Concedesconceded at least once	45%9 of 2026–66%	70%526 of 75067–73%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	28%211 of 75025–31%	20%4 of 208–42%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 9 vs 7

Roma · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDDWD

9pts

2-3-0W-D-L

9:5goals

Cagliari · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWDLL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

4:8goals

Roma · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWWDW

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

12:3goals

Cagliari · Last 5 away n = 5

WWWWL

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

6:6goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 15 → 9 vs 12 → 7

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Roma	Cagliari
Points (of 15)	15 → 9 ▼	12 → 7 ▼
Goals scored per match	2.8 → 1.8 ▼	1.2 → 0.8 ▼
Goals conceded per match	0.2 → 1.0 ▲	0.6 → 1.6 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1498 → 1577 tougher opponents	1539 → 1524 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+9 (1651)	−2 (1443)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 3 vs 3

	Roma	Cagliari
days since last match	3	3
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	4	2
position today	3 (18 pts)	8 (13 pts)
points off 1st	4	9
points off top 4	in top 4	4
points above bottom 3	14	9
matches left (incl. this one)	30	30
simulator impact	28 pp	28 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Gian Piero Gasperini since 6 Jun 2025 · 46 matches	Fabio Pisacane since 11 Jun 2025 · 46 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 410 km
weather at kick-off	17 °C · 0.0 mm · 2 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Roma 3-1-1 (n = 5)

	home		away
9 Feb 2026	Roma	2–0	Cagliari
7 Dec 2025	Cagliari	1–0	Roma
16 Mar 2025	Roma	1–0	Cagliari
18 Aug 2024	Cagliari	0–0	Roma
5 Feb 2024	Roma	4–0	Cagliari

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

AS Roma · unbeaten: 15

		now	longest in our database
AS Roma	unbeaten	15	19
Cagliari Calcio	winless	3	9
Cagliari Calcio	conceding	3	13

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	15%	10%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	14%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	9%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	15%	10%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	14%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	9%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	15%	10%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	14%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	9%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%