Real Madrid CF 1–0 Villarreal CF

La Liga · Matchday 8 · 10 Oct 2026 19:00 UTC · referee: Isidro Díaz de Mera (58 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–0 · hit · surprise: 0.43 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

65%1 · Real Madrid≈ 1 in 1.53

18%X≈ 1 in 5.45

16%2 · Villarreal≈ 1 in 6.14

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 4 matches. The away side travel roughly 310 km. The model estimates 65% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position4 vs 12

Elo rating1714 vs 1595

Last 5WLWWL homeLLLWW away

Rest days20 vs 20

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

2–1: 9% · 1–1: 8% · 2–0: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 80% vs 37%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Real Madrid	Villarreal	League
League position	4th of 20 · 15 pts	12th of 20 · 8 pts	—
Elo rating	1714	1595	—
Last 5	WLWWL	LLLWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	80%	37%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	2.5	2.0	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.0	1.8	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	83%	37%	56% · 36%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	8 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	8 of 10	52%
Days of rest	20	20	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 65% vs 40% · league 38%

Real MadridVillarrealleague, year before the match · n = 372

	Real Madrid	league	Villarreal
Winswon the match	65%13 of 2043–82%	38%282 of 74434–41%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Scoresscored at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	76%562 of 74472–78%	85%17 of 2064–95%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	52%192 of 37247–57%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	56%209 of 37251–61%	85%17 of 2064–95%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	76%562 of 74472–78%	100%20 of 2084–100%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	28%208 of 74425–31%	40%8 of 2022–61%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 9 vs 6

Real Madrid · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLWWL

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

12:6goals

Villarreal · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLLWW

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

9:8goals

Real Madrid · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWWWW

15pts

5-0-0W-D-L

18:4goals

Villarreal · Last 5 away n = 5

LDDLW

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

7:8goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 15 → 9 vs 5 → 6

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Real Madrid	Villarreal
Points (of 15)	15 → 9 ▼	5 → 6 ▲
Goals scored per match	2.6 → 2.4 ▼	2.2 → 1.8 ▼
Goals conceded per match	0.8 → 1.2 ▲	2.0 → 1.6 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1482 → 1532 tougher opponents	1548 (4 of 5) → 1505 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−3 (1714)	−8 (1595)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 20 vs 20

	Real Madrid	Villarreal
days since last match	20	20
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	0	0
position	4 (15 pts)	12 (8 pts)
points off 1st	6	13
points off top 4	in top 4	7
points above bottom 3	10	3
matches left (incl. this one)	31	31
coach (league matches led before)	Álvaro Arbeloa since 13 Jan 2026 · 26 matches	Iñigo Pérez since 1 Jun 2026 · 7 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 310 km
weather at kick-off	20 °C · 0.0 mm · 3 km/h	forecast from 10 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Real Madrid 4-1-0 (n = 5)

	home		away
24 Jan 2026	Villarreal	0–2	Real Madrid
4 Oct 2025	Real Madrid	3–1	Villarreal
15 Mar 2025	Villarreal	1–2	Real Madrid
5 Oct 2024	Real Madrid	2–0	Villarreal
19 May 2024	Villarreal	4–4	Real Madrid

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Real Madrid CF · scoring: 3

		now	longest in our database
Real Madrid CF	scoring	3	27
Real Madrid CF	conceding	4	10
Real Madrid CF	both teams score	3	7
Real Madrid CF	3+ goals	3	7
Villarreal CF	scoring	4	23
Villarreal CF	conceding	21	21
Villarreal CF	both teams score	4	10
Villarreal CF	3+ goals	4	5

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%