Real Madrid CF 4–1 Sevilla FC

La Liga · Matchday 9 · 18 Oct 2026 19:00 UTC · referee: Mateo Busquets Ferrer (58 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

4–1 · hit · surprise: 0.27 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

76%1 · Real Madrid≈ 1 in 1.31

15%X≈ 1 in 6.49

8%2 · Sevilla FC≈ 1 in 11.87

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 8 matches. The home side last played 4 days ago, the away side 6 days ago. The model estimates 76% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position4 vs 5

Elo rating1717 vs 1470

Last 5LWWLW homeDWWLD away

Rest days4 vs 6

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

2–0: 12% · 3–0: 10% · 1–0: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	10%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	7%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 2%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 80% vs 47%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Real Madrid	Sevilla FC	League
League position	4th of 20 · 18 pts	5th of 20 · 14 pts	—
Elo rating	1717	1470	—
Last 5	LWWLW	DWWLD	—
Points rate (last 10)	80%	47%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	2.4	1.3	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.0	1.4	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	93%	37%	56% · 36%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	6 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	5 of 10	51%
Days of rest	4	6	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 70% vs 40% · league 38%

Real MadridSevilla FCleague, year before the match · n = 382

	Real Madrid	league	Sevilla FC
Winswon the match	70%14 of 2048–85%	38%287 of 76434–41%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Scoresscored at least once	90%18 of 2070–97%	75%574 of 76472–78%	75%15 of 2053–89%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	51%196 of 38246–56%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	56%214 of 38251–61%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	75%574 of 76472–78%	85%17 of 2064–95%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	28%212 of 76425–31%	20%4 of 208–42%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 9 vs 8

Real Madrid · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWWLW

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

9:6goals

Sevilla FC · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DWWLD

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

7:7goals

Real Madrid · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWWWW

15pts

5-0-0W-D-L

17:4goals

Sevilla FC · Last 5 away n = 5

LWDWD

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

8:6goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 15 → 9 vs 6 → 8

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Real Madrid	Sevilla FC
Points (of 15)	15 → 9 ▼	6 → 8 ▲
Goals scored per match	3.0 → 1.8 ▼	1.2 → 1.4 ▲
Goals conceded per match	0.8 → 1.2 ▲	1.4 → 1.4 =
Average Elo of the opponents	1492 → 1552 tougher opponents	1576 → 1543 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−4 (1717)	+10 (1470)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 4 vs 6

	Real Madrid	Sevilla FC
days since last match	4	6
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	2	1
position	4 (18 pts)	5 (14 pts)
points off 1st	9	13
points off top 4	in top 4	4
points above bottom 3	11	7
matches left (incl. this one)	30	30
coach (league matches led before)	Álvaro Arbeloa since 13 Jan 2026 · 27 matches	Luis García Plaza since 25 Mar 2026 · 17 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 390 km
weather at kick-off	12 °C · 0.0 mm · 15 km/h	forecast from 18 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Real Madrid 5-0-0 (n = 5)

	home		away
17 May 2026	Sevilla FC	0–1	Real Madrid
20 Dec 2025	Real Madrid	2–0	Sevilla FC
18 May 2025	Sevilla FC	0–2	Real Madrid
22 Dec 2024	Real Madrid	4–2	Sevilla FC
25 Feb 2024	Real Madrid	1–0	Sevilla FC

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Real Madrid CF · scoring: 4

		now	longest in our database
Real Madrid CF	scoring	4	27
Sevilla FC	scoring	8	11

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	10%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	7%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	10%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	7%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	10%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	7%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%